DTN Cotton Close: Extends Prior Session’s Upside Reversal

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Effects of rainy, cool period on a record crop foreseen on the High Plains will hinge on its duration and subsequent weather. U.S. upland classing rose to 907,367 RB from 760,259 RB a year ago. Parts of damaged South Texas modules ginned. Wet microburst hit crop northeast of Lubbock.

Cotton futures settled up 68 to 100 points on light volume Monday, extending the prior session’s reversal off a four-week low in December amid support from rainy, cool conditions slowing crop progress in the Texas Plains.

December led the gains, settling at 69.46 cents, just off the high of its 122-point range from down 13 points at 68.33 to up 109 points at 69.55 cents. It finished above Friday’s high at its highest close since last Monday. March closed up 96 points to 68.54 cents, near the high of its 114-point range from 67.47 to 68.61 cents. October didn’t trade.

Volume slowed to an estimated 15,701 lots from 17,279 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 4,519 lots or 16%, EFP 77 lots and EFS 37 lots. Options volume slipped to 1,994 lots (868 calls and 1,126 puts) from 7,148 lots (2,881 calls and 4,267 puts).

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches were expected to be common on the Texas High Plains and adjoining areas of the Rolling Plains through Tuesday with some places receiving up to 5-plus inches. A Lubbock site on the West Texas Mesonet recorded a 48-hour total of 0.86 inch as of early Monday afternoon and O’Donnell to the south had received 2.03 inches.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Lubbock area were 80% Monday, ranged from 60% to 70% through Thursday and lingered into Sunday. Temperatures were forecast from the mid-70s to mid-60s for daytime highs at Lubbock, with nighttime lows from the high to low 50s.

The effects on the quality and quantity of a record cotton crop projected for the High Plains will depend upon how long the rainy, cool period lasts and on subsequent weather, industry sources said.

Heat units since May 1 totaled 2,442 through Sunday at Lubbock, compared with 2,560 through the corresponding period last season. Rainfall for the month of 0.97 inch was down from the long-term average of 2.06 inches and 1.46 inches last year, while precipitation for the year of 18.93 inches was up from 15.13 inches and 11.38 inches, respectively.

U.S. upland cotton classing increased to 147,385 running bales for the week ended Thursday to boost the total for the season to 907,637 RB, up from 776,571 RB a year ago, according to the latest USDA figures.

Tenderable cotton amounted to 87.8% for the season, compared with 76.7% last year. Classing for the week totaled 145,042 RB at Corpus Christi; 945 at Dumas, Ark.; 818 at Macon, Ga.; and 580 at Rayville, La.

Reports from the Gulf Coast indicated that crop losses from Hurricane Harvey weren’t as large as originally thought, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service said in a weekly review.

Parts of damaged modules were ginned. Decisions were made on a module-by-module basis because of varied factors, including whether tarps held on or blown off and how much water the modules were exposed to in the fields. Round modules sustained less damage than rectangular ones.

Ginning continued in the Rio Grande Valley, though some gins had completed operations for the year. Fifty-two gins sent samples to the Corpus facility for grading.

Boll openers and defoliants were applied on some fields in the West Texas Plains. A few fields have been harvested, mostly in the Rolling Plains. Modules had begun to accumulate on gin yards, but ginning wasn’t expected to begin until after Oct. 1.

Widespread crop damage was reported from a “wet microburst” northeast of Lubbock. Damage assessments were ongoing. Leaves were stripped from plants with some bolls left intact.

Futures open interest declined 1,389 lots to 236,097 on Friday, with October’s down 14 lots to 120, December’s down 1,189 lots to 134,250 and March’s down 384 lots to 71,456. Cert stocks dropped 608 bales to 1,772.

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