The U.S. soybean export forecast for 2017/18 is projected to exceed this year’s record volume as low prices and ample supplies continue to drive export sales. U.S. export volume for the May to August period was significantly above historic levels, and similar to the quantities attained in 2016 when supplies in Brazil were more limited.
Additionally, new-crop sales, which started slowly, have picked up the pace in the last few weeks; matching last season’s accelerated pace.
The strong late-season exports and new-crop sales have occurred at a time of large third-quarter exports by Brazil, a reflection of the record 2017 harvest, as well as an expectation of significant October 1 stocks.
While the Brazilian dynamic is similar to the situation in 2015, a key difference is that the United States is not facing a weakening real that allowed Brazilian beans to be priced more competitively. With large supplies available in Brazil and the United States, coupled with a stronger real, U.S. soybeans have remained competitive in export markets.
Given the ability of U.S. soybeans to remain competitive prior to harvest, there is nothing to indicate the situation will change post-harvest.