WASDE Coarse Grains: Increased U.S. Corn Production Offsets Higher Corn Usage

Corn harvest. Photo: Texas A&M AgriLife

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased production, greater feed and residual use, higher ending stocks, and lower prices. Corn production is forecast at 14.184 billion bushels, up 32 million from last month.

Corn supplies are up from last month, as a larger crop more than offsets a small decline in beginning stocks due to updated use estimates for 2016/17. Feed and residual use for 2017/18 is raised 25 million bushels with a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for ethanol for 2017/18 is projected down 25 million bushels at 5.475 billion, based on observed usage during 2016/17 and expectations of lower exports.

Other industrial use is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply increasing and use falling, corn ending stocks are up 62 million bushels from last month.

The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents on both ends to a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast up 2.4 million tons to 1,316.5 million. The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, slightly lower consumption, reduced trade, and larger stocks relative to last month.

Foreign corn production is forecast to decline relative to last month with reductions for Serbia, Ukraine, the EU, and Russia more than offsetting increases for Argentina and Mexico. The projected corn yield for Ukraine is reduced based on heat and dryness during the month of August.

In Argentina, corn area is raised from last month and is now forecast to be record high. Barley production is raised for Russia and Canada, but lowered for Argentina and the EU.

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Corn exports are lowered for Serbia and Russia, but increased for Ukraine. Despite a smaller crop, Ukraine’s relatively large exportable supplies and logistical advantages are expected to fill demand for imported corn in the EU. Brazil’s 2016/17 exports are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2017.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2017/18 are virtually unchanged from last month, with declines for Brazil, Serbia, Ukraine, and Russia offset by increases for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 202.5 million tons, are up 1.6 million from last month.

Full report.



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