Dossett On Rice: Any Correction Waiting For End Of Harvest, Hurricanes

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Cash Markets

  • Indian spot prices have firmed this week, increasing $10 MT to $413 MT. Major flooding occurred in the Punjab and Gujarat. Nepal suffereed flooding and Bangladesh is still under water. The monsoon was assessed to be 6% deficient but where it did rain, it rained a little too much.
  • Thailand prices for 5% white rice are $380 and still slipping, even though they have exported rice to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Bangladesh is importing 250,000 MT from Cambodia at $453. They are also buying from Myanmar on a state to state deal that should be finalized next week.

  • Traders in Vietnam are quoting 5% broken at $385-390 MT FOB Saigon.  Iraq will import 60,000 MT from Vietnam at $590 MT delivered. Iran’s rice import ban will be in effect until November 21. Iran should import close to 800,000 MT this crop year.
  • Texas rice producers are dealing with sprouting in the head after the excessive rains due to Harvey. The talk is a $2-3 CWT discount for sprouted rice.
  • We have pictures of Mississippi Delta rice that was laid down from Harvey rains. They are trying to harvest that rice today. The line at the Delta elevators is horrendous, many miles long.
  • It looks like the latest on Hurricane Irma is a westerly turn with termination near Nashville. That course would damage Georgia cotton. Hopefully, though, it will spare the Delta rice, cotton and beans from more excessive rains.

Futures Market

  • September futures delivery is finishing up. We have seen a lot of rice delivered as usual. Most can be traced to banks, commercials and co-ops. There are currently 1,882 contracts certified and we have seen 1,404 contracts delivered.
  • There was a lot of movement in and out of McGehee, Arkansas. This usually means rice is moving down the river for export.
  • The market has stayed very stable and locked in a range between $12.40-13.00 for November futures.
  • Export sales on Friday, September 8, were average at 45,000 tons.
  • Rice still has an overbought technical indicator, but I don’t expect correction until the harvest is finished and the hurricanes stop.

Markham B. Dossett was a Charter member of the New Orleans Commodity Exchange. He has traded rice since early 1981. He owns Talon Asset Management LLC where he hedges rice, soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and cattle for producers in the South and Southwest.

Futures trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.

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