Year-over-year, combined Canadian and U.S. wheat exports are projected lower based on smaller crops in both countries. However, massive carryin stocks partially offset the lower production. Drought conditions have affected spring wheat production, leading to tight supplies of high-protein wheat.
U.S. exports are forecast down year-over-year, while Canada’s exports are forecast nearly unchanged amid robust global demand for high-protein wheat. However, a larger amount of Canadian supplies are likely to go to the United States, leaving less for other importers.
The limited availability of Canadian and U.S. wheat is expected to have a major impact on the global market. The EU and Russia are both forecast to have larger crops and are expected to pick up exports at the expense of the United States and Canada.
However, the vast majority of the EU and Russian crops will not be of adequate protein to compensate for the reduced availability of U.S. and Canadian spring wheat. Protein premiums have soared in recent months based on tightening supplies of high-protein spring wheat.