WASDE Wheat: U.S. Supplies, Production Lowered

Texas A&M AgriLife Communications photo by Kay Ledbetter

Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased this month on lower production, down 21 million bushels to 1,739 million. The August NASS production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year, primarily due to continued severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains.

Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, on increased yields, with most of the production increase for white wheat. Food use estimates for both 2016/17 and 2017/18 are reduced, based primarily on the August 1, NASS Flour Milling Products report.

The other wheat usage categories for 2017/18 are unchanged this month. Projected 2017/18 ending stocks are decreased 5 million bushels to 933 million. The 2017/18 season-average farm price is unchanged at the midpoint of $4.80 per bushel and the projected range remains at $4.40 to $5.20.

Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased significantly, primarily on an 8.6-million-ton production increase in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Russian production is a record 77.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record by 5.0 million.

Winter wheat yields are forecast higher for both Russia and Ukraine, based mainly on harvest results to date. Additionally, spring wheat conditions have remained very favorable for both Russia and Kazakhstan, resulting in higher production forecasts.

Canadian wheat production is reduced 1.9 million tons to 26.5 million on the increasing intensification of drought conditions in major production areas of the Prairie Provinces. The increased FSU production more than offsets reduced production forecasts in Canada, EU, and U.S., raising 2017/18 global production by more than 5.0 million tons to 743.2 million.

Foreign 2017/18 trade is increased on higher exports for Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan more than offsetting reductions in Canada and EU. Projected imports are raised for several countries, led by Indonesia and Nigeria. Total world consumption is projected higher, primarily on greater usage by Russia, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Projected global ending stocks are 4.1 million tons higher this month at 264.7 million, which is a new record.

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