Total U.S. rice supplies are lowered 5.0 million cwt from last month due to a smaller crop and a slight reduction in beginning stocks. The 2017/18 U.S. rice production forecast is lowered 4.8 million cwt to 186.5 million based on the first survey-based yield forecast of the 2017/18 season.
Long-grain production is lowered nearly 4.0 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production is down almost 0.9 million cwt. This is the smallest all rice crop since 2011/12. At 7,513 pounds per acre, the 2017/18 yield is down 194 pounds from the previous projection. Partly offsetting the reduction in supplies is a 2.5 million cwt reduction in domestic and residual use.
All rice ending stocks are lowered 2.5 million cwt to 30.0 million, the lowest in a decade. The 2017/18 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.40 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $12.20 to $13.20. Prices for all rice classes are raised this month.
The 2017/18 global supplies are lowered fractionally with decreased production more than offsetting higher beginning stocks. This remains the second largest global crop on record. Foreign production is lowered 0.9 million tons on reductions for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Global consumption for 2017/18 is lowered 0.6 million tons with the largest reduction for Bangladesh. Global exports are raised 0.5 million tons primarily on India. The 2017/18 global ending stocks are raised 0.4 million tons to 122.9 million.