The first survey of U.S. 2017 crop production indicates a crop of 20.5 million bales, 1.5 million above last month and the largest production in 11 years. The larger crop is partially offset by lower beginning stocks which are reduced 400,000 bales to 2.8 million due to an increase in final 2016/17 exports.
Domestic mill use for 2017/18 is lowered 50,000 bales, but exports are raised 700,000 based on the larger supply and strong early-season commitments. Ending stocks are now projected at 5.8 million bales which, if realized, would be the largest since 2008/09.
The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 55 to 67 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end, with the midpoint unchanged at 61 cents.
Sharply larger production is raising this month’s 2017/18 global stock forecasts. World production is increased 1.9 million bales, as higher production in the United States, China, and Benin is partially offset by a reduction for Turkey. The forecast for China’s crop is raised 500,000 bales mainly on higher area.
World consumption for 2017/18 is forecast 375,000 bales higher this month, largely due to a 500,000-bale increase for China. At 3.3 percent, growth in world cotton consumption in 2017/18 is projected at its highest rate in 5 years.
World 2017/18 ending stocks are now projected at 90.1 million bales, an increase of 1.4 million from the July forecast, and 100,000 above 2016/17.