This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and a decline in ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 102 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 1.2 bushels lower than last month’s trend-based projection.
This month’s Crop Production report indicates that South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are forecast to have yields below a year ago. The projected yield for Indiana is unchanged relative to last year, while Nebraska and Ohio are forecast higher. Sorghum production is forecast 13 million bushels higher with the forecast yield 2.6 bushels per acre above last month’s projection.
Projected feed and residual use for 2017/18 is lowered 25 million bushels on a smaller crop. Exports are forecast down 25 million bushels, reflecting the increased competitiveness of supplies in Argentina and Brazil and the low level of new-crop outstanding sales.
With supplies falling faster than use, ending stocks are reduced 52 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel.
This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for virtually unchanged production, lower trade, and greater stocks relative to last month. EU corn and barley production are reduced. Canada corn production is down on lower projected harvested area.
Corn and barley production forecasts are raised for Russia based on higher corn area and favorable growing conditions for barley. Ukraine corn production is unchanged as a reduction in projected yield is offset by increased area. For 2016/17, corn production is increased for Brazil based on second crop corn harvest results to date.
Major global corn grain trade changes for 2017/18 include corn export reductions for the EU, Serbia, and Canada. More than offsetting are increases for Ukraine and Russia. Brazil’s corn exports are raised for 2016/17 based on record-high shipments observed for the local marketing year beginning in March 2017.
Corn imports for 2017/18 are raised, mostly reflecting increases for the EU and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month. Historical revisions are made to corn stock estimates for Ukraine to better reflect statistics published by the government.