WASDE Oilseeds: U.S. Production Raised on Increased Harvested Area

U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 127.0 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month, with increases for soybeans, canola, and peanuts only partly offset with a lower forecast for sunflowerseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is projected at 4,260 million bushels, up 5 million on increased harvested area.

Harvested area, estimated at 88.7 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.1 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 48.0 bushels per acre. Despite slightly higher production, 2017/18 soybean supplies are reduced 35 million bushels on lower beginning stocks. With projections for exports and crush unchanged, 2017/18 soybean ending stocks are reduced 35 million bushels to 465 million.

Soybean exports for 2016/17 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, up 50 million, reflecting shipments and outstanding sales through early July. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1,900 million on lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic use. Soybean ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.40 to $10.40 per bushel, up $0.10 at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $300 to $340 per short ton, up $5.00 at the midpoint. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 30 to 34 cents per pound.

The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 573.9 million tons, up 0.9 million mostly on higher forecasts for Ukraine sunflowerseed, India cottonseed, U.S. peanuts, and China soybeans.

Partly offsetting is lower rapeseed production for Australia. Ukraine sunflowerseed harvested area is raised in line with revisions for 2016/17, resulting in a higher production forecast. Soybean production is raised for China due to increased harvested area.

Grain Commentary

Global oilseed exports for 2017/18 are projected at 172.9 million tons, up 0.6 million mainly reflecting increased soybean exports for Brazil and Ukraine. Soybean exports are also raised for 2016/17 as higher exports for the United States and Paraguay are partly offset by lower exports for Brazil and Argentina.

Global soybean imports are forecast higher principally for China where imports are projected up 2 million tons to 91 million in 2016/17 and 1 million tons to 94 million in 2017/18. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2017/18 are up 1.0 million tons to 104.5 million mostly on higher soybean stocks in China and South America.

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