The U.S. 2017/18 cotton projections show production is 200,000 bales lower than last month. With no change in domestic use or exports, ending stocks are also revised down 200,000 bales.
The decrease in the crop projection is attributed mainly to lower planted area as indicated in the June 30 Acreage report, combined with slightly less favorable assumptions about abandonment based on current conditions.
The projected range of 54 to 68 cents per pound for the marketing year average price received by producers is unchanged on the lower end and reduced 6 cents on the upper end; the midpoint of 61 cents is reduced 3 cents from last month.
Higher production is increasing this month’s global cotton stocks forecasts for both 2016/17 and 2017/18. The world carryin for 2017/18 is increased 934,000 bales owing in large part to an upward revision of 500,000 bales for India’s estimated 2016/17 crop.
World 2017/18 production is increased 636,000 bales, despite the lower expected U.S. crop, mainly on increased area expectations for India. Production is also raised for Turkey, but is lowered for Pakistan and Mexico. World consumption is also forecast higher in both 2016/17—up nearly 200,000 bales—and 2017/18—up more than 500,000 bales.
World 2017/18 ending stocks are now projected at 88.7 million bales, an increase of 1.0 million from the June forecast.