This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, and higher ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are raised 75 million bushels reflecting lower feed and residual use in 2016/17 based on indicated disappearance during the first three quarters of the marketing year in the June 30 Grain Stocks report.
Corn production for 2017/18 is projected 190 million bushels higher based on increased planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report. The national average corn yield is unchanged at 170.7 bushels per acre.
During June, harvested-area weighted precipitation for the major corn producing states was below normal but did not represent an extreme deviation from average. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July.
Projected feed and residual use for 2017/18 is raised 50 million bushels on a larger crop and lower expected prices. With other use categories unchanged, corn ending stocks are raised 215 million bushels from last month. Small revisions are made to historical trade and utilization estimates based on the 13th month trade data revisions from the Census Bureau.
The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint for a range of $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel with the larger carryout.
Oat production is lowered 13 million bushels and barley production is reduced 16 million reflecting area adjustments in the Acreage report and higher barley and lower oat yields in today’s Crop Production. Sorghum production is raised based on the higher area reported in the Acreage report.
This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, reduced trade and increased stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is down reflecting a lower projection for Spain, where heat and dryness during grain fill hurt yield prospects. Historical revisions are made to Kenya’s corn production estimates to better reflect statistics published by the government.
Barley production is lowered for Argentina, the EU, and Ukraine, but raised for Turkey and Russia. For 2016/17, Argentina corn production is raised based on the latest information indicating a higher-than-expected level of area. Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include lower barley exports for Argentina and reduced corn exports for the EU and Tanzania.
Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month, with the largest increases primarily for Vietnam, Mexico, and Argentina.