Russia is forecast to be the world’s leading exporter for 2017/18 for the first time, surpassing the EU and the United States. Russia’s total supplies are expected to be record-breaking based on near-record production as well as massive carry-in from the previous year.
New-crop Russian wheat is competitively-priced against other origins – Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. Russia’s current position in the global market is a large change from a decade ago. Expanding area and improving yields have led to several consecutive bumper crops.
In addition, export competiveness has improved with investments in infrastructure, specifically efforts to expand port capacity.
Russia’s abundant supplies and low prices in the current year provide an opportunity to compensate for tight supplies in other major exporting countries. Last year, the United States was the world’s largest exporter, aided by abundant supplies and competitive prices.
This year, however, the U.S. crop is projected down significantly and exports are forecast lower, in spite of abundant carry-in. The EU is projected to have a better crop and larger exports compared to last year.
However, supplies are still expected to be tight relative to the previous two years, when it was the leading exporter by a large margin.