Tuesday was a tale of two directions in grains with pleasant summer weather across most of the Midwest pressuring corn and soybeans lower while July Minneapolis wheat jumped up 16 3/4 cents after USDA issued another round of lower crop ratings for spring wheat.
Wheat trying to drag trade higher at midday.
Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with selling amidst broader commodity weakness picking up late during the overnight session. Ethanol margins continue to see pressure from weaker crude values.
The weather forecast continues to evolve with the placement of the tropical system making landfall this week the biggest question for corn belt rain, with heat edging back in during the extended forecast. Weekly crop progress had conditions unchanged at 67% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor, with a 2% bump from good to excellent, with 98% emerged, same as average.
On the July corn contract support is at the 200-day of $3.71 with resistance at the $3.81 10-day moving average.
Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents lower with early support giving way to selling this morning. Meal is 0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is 55 to 65 lower. South America should continue to push bushels into the world export market at very competitive prices. Further biodiesel rulings are expected this week which could bolster the recent soyoil rally with the energy weakness hurting trade today.
Weekly crop progress showed a 1% improvement to 67% good to excellent, 7% poor to very poor, with 95% planted vs. 93% on average and 88% emerged vs. 84% on average.
July beans have major support at the $9.09 1/2 14-month low, with the 20-day at $9.30 nearby support with resistance the 50-day at $9.51.
Wheat trade is mixed with trade from 2 lower on the Kansas City to 7 higher on the Minneapolis with support from sliding crop conditions in the north and harvest pressure to the south. Winter wheat harvest continues to expand in Kansas with action moving north of I-70 this week.
Protein will continue to be a major driver coming forward with the line between milling and feed wheat important with early protein running on the light side but generally making the lower end of the standards with bigger yields in central Kansas resulting in lower protein. Western Europe looks to be warmer and drier in the near term raising some additional concerns.
The dollar has firmed off the lows but the larger down trend still looks to be intact. The crop progress report had winter wheat conditions 1% lower at 49% good to excellent and 16% poor to very poor, with 28% harvested vs. 23% on average. Spring wheat dropped 4% to 41% good to excellent, and 27% poor to very poor with 15% headed vs. 22% on average which should add support tonight.
On the July Kansas City contract support is the 10-day at $4.60 with resistance the recent high at $4.81.