For the second consecutive Monday, row crops are under pressure from a seven-day forecast that looks favorable for crops. Wheat prices tried to trade higher, but ended mixed on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading at new highs and pulling the U.S. dollar index higher.
Midday: Wheat leads at midday with soybeans firmer and corn weak.
Corn trade is 4 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade leaving a gap on the open before recovering somewhat with traders focused on cooler weather along with better recent rains, and more coming for the eastern belt depending on how the tropical system tracks.
Ethanol margins are still under pressure with corn higher, and ethanol futures gains vs. unleaded. The weekly export inspections were good at 1.218 million metric tons. Weekly crop progress is looking for conditions to be steady to slightly better with maturity lagging the 5 year average if we get a silking number today.
On the July corn contract support is at the 20-day of $3.76 with resistance at the $3.81 10-day moving average.
Soybean trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday with supportive buying tied to better demand seen to open the week. Meal is flat to 1.00 higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. South America should continue to push bushels into the world export market with soybean harvest in the rear view mirror now for Argentina.
Further biodiesel rulings are expected this week which could bolster the recent soyoil rally. Weekly export inspections were softer at 275,461 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to slightly better conditions with emergence still a little behind normal.
July beans have major support at the $9.09 1/2 14-month low, with the 20-day at $9.33 nearby support with resistance the 50-day at $9.51 which we are testing at midday.
Wheat trade is 2 to 8 cents higher at midday with winter wheat leading as Minneapolis wheat fades from the highs ahead of today’s progress report. Winter wheat harvest continues to expand in Kansas with action moving north of I-70 this week.
Protein will continue to be a major driver coming forward with the line between milling and feed wheat important with early protein running on the light side but generally making the lower end of the standards. Western Europe looks to be warmer and drier in the near term raising some additional concerns.
The dollar has firmed off the lows but the larger down trend still looks to be intact. Export inspections were strong at 739,634, with crop progress showing harvest pulling ahead of normal for winter wheat, and spring wheat conditions stabilizing after the recent rains.
On the July Kansas City contract support is the 200-day at $4.46 with resistance the recent high at $4.81.