WASDE Oilseeds: Domestic Soybean Crush Lowered, Stocks Raised

This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2017/18 are little changed from last month. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush projection for 2016/17. Soybean crush for 2016/17 is reduced 15 million bushels to 1,910 million mainly reflecting reduced domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 450 million bushels, up 15 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are also raised 15 million bushels to 495 million.

Price forecasts for 2017/18 are unchanged this month. The 2017/18 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $295 to $335 per short ton and 30 to 34 cents per pound, respectively.

The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production and stocks compared to last month. Higher cottonseed and sunflowerseed production is partly offset by lower rapeseed. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Ukraine on higher planted area based on reported planting progress to date. EU rapeseed production is down mainly on lower projected yields in Germany where crops experienced dry and sub-freezing conditions through key flowering stages.

Global oilseed production changes for 2016/17 include higher soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and higher peanut production in India. Global soybean production is raised 3.3 million tons to 351.3 million. The Brazil soybean crop is projected up 2.4 million tons to 114.0 million reflecting increased yields in more recently harvested areas, particularly Rio Grande do Sul.

With higher global production in 2016/17, the beginning stocks for 2017/18 are raised 3.1 million tons to 93.2 million. The larger beginning stocks combined with a 0.5-million-ton reduction to Argentina soybean exports in 2017/18 results in a 3.4-million-ton increase to 92.2 million to global soybean stocks at the end of the 2017/18 marketing year.

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