DTN Grain Midday: Markets Find Modest Support
Trade is steady to slightly higher at midday.
Corn trade is flat at midday with about a 4 cent two-sided trade so far. The weather forecast should allow for mixed planting progress with Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois looking drier over the next week.
Ethanol margins are stable this morning with ethanol futures steady to higher while corn values are steady. But unleaded futures are moving lower with the crude break so that could pressure ethanol before the day is over. Acreage concerns going forward will limit downside with December futures briefly slipping below $3.80 this morning.
On the May chart support is at the $3.54 3-month low with resistance at the $3.62 20 and 200-day moving averages.
Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade finding light buying again with two sided trade during the day session. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. South American harvest is on the back stretch, and trade may look to discourage US soybean acreage with spread action as corn planting should accelerate the next few days.
Basis has remained steady this week with softer crush margins. The USDA announced 146,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown. Support is the 10-day moving average at $9.47, with the multi-month low at $9.29 below that, with resistance the 20-day at $9.51 above that, which we tested overnight.
Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher at midday with trade trying to stabilize after some continued light selling after the wash out yesterday. Wheat open interest hit a new record with the liquidation. The cold threat looks to be fading for this weekend with moisture remaining OK for most of the winter wheat belt over the next week.
The Dakotas look wet enough to keep planting slow for now, but progress should be able to catch up in the next week in North Dakota. The Black Sea area is showing some near term dryness, but concerns remain limited for now, with early estimates of the crop down 7% from last year. The dollar index continues to track below 100 for now but is firming this morning.
On the May Kansas City contract support is at the new low at $3.98 3/4 overnight with resistance at the $4.20 20-day moving average.
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 5 points higher. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 17 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down $1.20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 2.50.
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The bulls were again winners in an exciting week for longs and producers. In last week’s report, I said the markets bias would be near unchanged to a bit lower.