Dossett On Rice: How Much Less Long Grain Will Be Planted?
- Iraq bought 60,000 tons of rice from Uruguay on the latest tender.
- Iran made a substantial purchase from Thailand and India.
- India’s prices have stayed steady and strong.
- Thailand and Vietnam told farmers to grow less rice but many producers will not listen.
- Major rice co-ops in Arkansas will force producers to price “Growers Option” rice by May 15.
- Of course, Mother Nature has a vote in production, so the trade will closely watch the development of the El Nino that is forecast for impacts on Southeast Asia and Indian production.
- May rice futures had a nice rally up to the $10.30 cwt range. This allowed many producers to price the remaining rice they had in storage.
- Weekly exports on April 20 were the lowest this year. This accelerated the decline in futures that have had a setback since the run-up after two USDA reports.
- Most knowledgeable rice traders believe USDA has underestimated the reduction in rice planting in the five long-grain states. Rice futures usually decline before the First Notice Day, which will be Friday, April 29. But after FND and the pricing of “Growers Option”, the July contract may surprise those that have an extremely bearish outlook.
**Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.
Markham B. Dossett was a Charter member of the New Orleans Commodity Exchange. He has traded rice since early 1981. He owns Talon Asset Management LLC where he hedges rice, soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and cattle for producers in the South and Southwest.
The bulls were again winners in an exciting week for longs and producers. In last week’s report, I said the markets bias would be near unchanged to a bit lower.