May corn finished unchanged Wednesday, stuck in the mud with the rest of the planting equipment this year as Mother Nature continues to deliver a cool, wet spring across the Midwest. May soybeans were modestly higher with help from commercial buying in soybean oil and protective talk from the government concerning biodiesel imports.
Midday: Trade fades back to unchanged after early strength.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday in quiet trade with trade trying to consolidate the lower end of the range after the early-week break and early-day strength fading. Also a more open forecast in some areas is expected to allow good planting progress in the week ahead with parts of Iowa and Illinois looking more open on the overnight run.
Ethanol margins should remain stable with the weekly report showing production 0.73% higher on the week, with stocks 0.57% higher, and gasoline demand down 0.6%. Our good demand helps provide good support in the low end of our range as does concerns over planted acreage with basis mostly steady so far this week.
On the May chart support is the 20-day at $3.62 which we are right around at midday, after we failed to hold the 100-day at $3.66 which becomes resistance.
Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade trying to firm back from the early week struggles here with harvest pressure continuing to wane from South America. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 25 to 35 points higher. South American harvest is on the back stretch, and trade may look to discourage US soybean acreage with the slow pace of corn planting early on with the spreads widening out through midweek.
Crush margins have slipped this week, but processor basis has generally remained fairly steady. Support is the 10-day moving average at $9.46, with the multi-month low at $9.29 below that, with resistance the 20-day at $9.56 above that.
Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher with trade trying to find support again after the recent long liquidation on the winter wheat, and planting delay concerns in the spring wheat. The cold threat looks to be fading for this weekend with moisture remaining OK for most of the winter wheat belt. The Dakotas look wet enough to keep planting slow for now.
The Black Sea area is showing some near term dryness, but concerns remain limited. The dollar index has firmed a bit overnight but remains below 100 for now. On the May Kansas City contract support is at the $4.14 four-month low with resistance at the $4.23 20-day moving average.