Rice futures have rallied on anticipation of the recently anticipated Iraqi tender. The deadline of January 23 has passed and most people believe that one of the big U.S. exporters did get some business.
However, tenders from Iraq and Iran have gotten very secretive over the last 6 months. So, we won’t know what quantity was sold until the Weekly Export report next Thursday at 7:30 a.m. CST.
The big Arkansas co-ops are reportedly selling a lot of milled rice to domestic customers, but we need to sell milled rice to export customers to really excite the rice trade in the USA.
Also of note:
- Prices in India have been very strong due to increased African demand.
- Prices in Thailand are stable and quiet. The exciting news for U.S. producers is that the Thai government has stated in the last month that they only have 8 MMT of rice left and 5 MMT of that is only suitable for animal feed or ethanol. You could say they are at the bottom of the barrel.
- My personal belief is that a similar situation may unfold in India. I do not know if we will find out the truth about Indian stocks any time soon. If that does turn out to the be case, this rice market will be in for a major adjustment to the upside.
- Many rice seed salesmen are talking about a big shift from rice and corn to soybeans. USDA will confirm those ideas in the March 9 WASDE report.
- The rice exports this Thursday were 59,000 tons, which is a very respectable number.
- We watch the registered rice receipts in deliverable warehouses and have noticed 10 or 15 receipts per night leaving those facilities for shipment down the river for export.
Markham B. Dossett was a Charter member of the New Orleans Commodity Exchange. He has traded rice since early 1981. He owns Talon Asset Management LLC where he hedges rice, soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and cattle for producers in the South and Southwest.