WASDE Oilseeds: U.S. Soybean Exports Expected to Slow for 2nd Half of 2016-17

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

Total U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is forecast at 128.8 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2016/17 are unchanged from last month.

Although early-season soybean exports are sharply higher than a year ago, competition from South America is expected to be strong in the second half of the marketing year, limiting U.S. export prospects during the summer of 2017 relative to the prior year.

Soybean ending stocks are projected at 480 million bushels which, if realized, would be the highest since 2006/07. Soybean oil used for methyl ester is raised 250 million pounds to 6.2 billion for 2016/17 reflecting the recent EPA Renewable Fuel Standard announcements for 2017.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 is forecast at $8.70 to $10.20 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean oil is forecast at 34.5 to 37.5 cents per pound, up 2 cents on both ends. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton.

The 2016/17 global oilseed supply and demand estimates include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is projected up 3.4 million tons to 554.7 million on increases for soybeans, peanuts, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed partly offset by a reduction for rapeseed. Global soybean production is raised 1.9 million tons to 338.0 million on higher projected yields for India and Canada.

Peanut production is raised 0.7 million tons to 42.5 million mainly on increased production in India. Sunflowerseed production is raised 0.6 million tons to 44.3 million on increased production in Russia and South Africa.

Global oilseed trade for 2016/17 is projected at 159.9 million tons, up 0.1 million from last month. Soybean exports account for most of the change with a higher projection for Canada partly offset by a reduction for Argentina. Soybean imports are raised for the EU. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 94.6 million tons, up 1.7 million mainly on increased soybean stocks in Argentina and higher soybean and peanut stocks for India.

Global 2016/17 soybean and product supply and use changes include increased soybean crush for the EU and India, increased soybean meal exports for India, and reduced soybean meal exports for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States.

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