WASDE Coarse Grains: Global Production, Consumption Increased; U.S. Corn Unchanged

No changes are made to this month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn supply and use projections.  Forecast U.S. corn exports are unchanged this month, despite a sales and shipment pace that is well above a year ago. In recent years early-season U.S. corn export commitments have not been a robust indicator of final exports, and it is expected that the U.S. will likely face strong competition from South America beginning in the first part of 2017. 

The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel, on continued higher-than-expected early-season prices.

The 2016/17 projection of grain sorghum use for ethanol is raised 5 million bushels, based on the latest indications from the NASS Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. With no other changes to grain sorghum supply or use, forecast ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels from last month.  Grain sorghum prices in 2016/17 are projected to average $2.80 to $3.30 per bushel, down 10 cents on the high end of the range.

Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 9.7 million tons higher to 1,329.4 million.  This month’s 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production and consumption, increased trade, and larger stocks relative to last month.

China corn production is increased reflecting the latest information released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Corn production for Brazil is raised this month on increases in both area and yield and if realized would be record-high. In the Center-West, first-crop corn has had a good start to the growing season while conditions for crop development in most of southern Brazil were generally favorable during the month of November. The latest information from the Government of Brazil also indicates an area level above previous expectations, and the soybean crop is progressing ahead of schedule in the Center-West.

Russia corn production is higher based on harvest results to date.  Canada corn production is raised based on the latest data from Statistics Canada.

Indonesia corn production is increased, primarily reflecting updated information indicating a government-supported expansion in area on previously idle land.

Australia barley production is raised and is projected to be record high.

Major global trade changes this month include larger projected corn exports for Brazil and Russia. Notable increases in corn imports are forecast for Vietnam, Iran, Taiwan, Colombia, and Egypt. Partly offsetting are reductions in projected imports for Canada, the EU and Indonesia.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 4.1 million tons this month, with the largest stock increases projected for China, Vietnam, Brazil, and Russia.

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