WASDE Oilseeds: U.S. Soybean Yields, Production Raised

U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 128.7 million metric tons, up 2.5 million from last month on increased soybean and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 4,361 million bushels, up 92 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at a record 52.5 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels mainly on production gains for Minnesota, North Dakota, and Kansas.

Despite increased supplies, soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels to 1,930 million mostly due to reduced soybean meal export prospects. Sales are lagging year-earlier levels to several markets including Mexico, Canada, Thailand, and the EU. Domestic soybean meal consumption is reduced slightly, in line with changes in the 2015/16 balance sheet.

Soybean exports are projected at 2,050 million bushels, up 25 million with increased supplies. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 480 million bushels, up 85 million from the previous forecast.

Soybean and product price forecasts for 2016/17 are raised this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $8.45 to $9.95 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range reflecting reported early-season producer prices.

Soybean meal prices are projected at $305 to $345 per short ton, up $5.00 on both ends. Soybean oil prices are projected at 32.5 to 35.5 cents per pound, up 2 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 551.2 million tons, up 3.1 million from last month led by higher soybean production. Global soybean production is projected at 336.1 million tons, up 2.9 million with larger crops in the United States, Russia, and Mexico. Smaller global production increases in cottonseed, peanuts, and rapeseed are partly offset by a reduction in sunflowerseed.

Global cottonseed production is raised 0.3 million tons to 39.1 million with increased production in India partly offset by a reduction for Argentina. Global rapeseed and peanut production are raised to 67.8 and 41.8 million tons, respectively, on increased production projected for China. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.3 million tons to 43.7 million on lower forecasts for Bolivia and the EU.

Global oilseed trade for 2016/17 is projected at 159.7 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the United States, Russia, and Ukraine and increased rapeseed exports from the EU account for most of the increase. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 92.9 million tons, up 4.7 million from last month. Soybean stocks account for most of the change with increases for the United States, China, and Argentina.

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