This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, increased exports, reduced stocks, and higher prices. Corn production is forecast at 15.057 billion bushels, down 36 million from last month as a lower forecast yield more than offsets an increase in harvested area.
Corn supplies for 2016/17 are down slightly to 16.845 billion bushels, as a lower crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, reflecting current U.S. export commitments that are well above a year ago. Corn ending stocks are down 63 million bushels.
The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.
Grain sorghum production is forecast 22 million bushels below last month, as a forecast 1.5-bushel per acre increase in yield to a record 77.2 bushels per acre is more than offset by lower harvested area, with the largest reduction in Texas. Barley production is raised 10 million bushels and oat production is down 12 million bushels based on the Small Grains report.
Grain sorghum prices in 2016/17 are projected to average $2.80 to $3.40 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast down 5.0 million tons to 1,314.8 million. This month’s 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, higher consumption, increased trade, and lower stocks relative to last month.
Brazil corn production is raised on higher area, based on the latest Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB) report indicating a forecast level of first crop corn area above prior expectations. Corn and barley production are lowered for the EU, while domestic feed demand and competitive world corn prices underpin larger projected imports. Russia barley production is down based on the latest government harvest reports.
Corn exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina, with larger projected supplies in the former and an expected increase in the relative competitiveness of both countries for the local marketing year that begins March 2017. Other large month-to-month increases in corn imports are forecast for Iran, Vietnam, and Mexico.
Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are lowered 1.0 million tons, with the largest stock declines in Argentina and Ukraine. Global corn stocks are projected 2.7 million tons lower to 216.8 million, but are still record high.