WASDE Oilseeds: Soybean Production Up 80M Bushels

U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 115.4 million tons, up 2.5 million tons mainly on higher soybean production. Soybean production is projected at 3,880 million bushels, up 80 million due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at a record 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 1.6 million above the June forecast.

The soybean yield is projected at 46.7 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Soybean supplies are raised 60 million bushels with lower beginning stocks partly offsetting production gains. With increased supplies, soybean crush and exports are raised 10 and 20 million bushels respectively. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.

Soybean exports for 2015/16 are projected at 1,795 million bushels, up 35 million reflecting shipments and outstanding sales through early July. Residual use is reduced based on indications from the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 350 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 is projected at $8.75 to $10.25 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $325 to $365 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price is projected at 29.5 to 32.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 536.4 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month with U.S. soybean production accounting for most of the change. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 421.1 million tons, up 0.1 million with higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed production mostly offset with lower forecasts for cottonseed and copra.

Rapeseed production is raised for Canada mainly on increased planted area reported by Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production is reduced for the EU on lower harvested area and yields. Lower yields reflect excessive June rainfall, mainly in France.

Grain Commentary

Other changes include increased soybean production for Canada and increased peanut production for the United States. Cottonseed production is reduced for India and Pakistan with partly offsetting increases for the United States and Australia. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 76.1 million tons, up 1.0 million with higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed stocks only partly offset with lower peanut stocks.

Global vegetable oil stocks are raised mainly reflecting historical revisions for Indonesia.

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