WASDE Cotton: U.S. Exports Decline, Stocks Rise

Bagged cotton samples on gin floor. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

A 5-percent reduction in exports is raising projected 2015/16 U.S. cotton ending stocks this month. The production and domestic mill use forecasts are unchanged.

Exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 9.5 million, reflecting continued sluggish export sales, attributable mainly to sharply lower imports by China relative to last season. Ending stocks are now projected at 3.6 million bales, or 27.5 percent of total use.

The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 58 to 61 cents per pound is raised 1 cent on the lower end, with the mid-point now forecast at 59.5 cents.

The world 2015/16 cotton forecasts include lower expectations of consumption and trade relative to last month. Consumption and imports are reduced for China, based on continued sluggish demand, and for Pakistan, where a slower pace of imports indicates reduced demand.

World consumption is lowered 1.3 million bales, which also includes reductions for India and Brazil. With global imports nearly 1.0 million bales below last month, exports are reduced for Brazil, India, and Pakistan, in addition to the United States. Global stocks are now forecast at just over 104 million bales.

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