WASDE Cotton: Reduced Domestic Production, Raised Ending Stocks

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images

The 2015/16 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows marginally lower production and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Production is lowered 88,000 bales to 12.9 million. Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales based on spinning activity through November, but exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.1 million bales.

The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end, with the midpoint unchanged from last month at 59 cents per pound.

The world 2015/16 cotton supply and demand estimates include sharply lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, with consumption reduced slightly. Global production is reduced more than 2.0 million bales, based on updated harvest reports for Pakistan, China, India, and Turkmenistan. Pakistan’s crop is reduced 800,000 bales to 7.2 million, its lowest level since 1998, as falling gin arrivals indicate more extensive whitefly damage than previously expected.

World consumption is reduced nearly 500,000 bales, reflecting decreases for India, Pakistan, and the United States. Imports are raised 725,000 bales, virtually all in Pakistan, while exports are raised for India and others. World ending stocks are now projected at 102.9 million bales, down 8 percent from the beginning level.

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