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Owen Taylor, Editor

A couple of quick observations based on this week’s calls:

• Wheat. Don’t expect long lines at the elevator when harvest starts this spring. Wet weather delayed planting across much of our coverage area. Some fields never were planted. Others were planted but washed out or flooded. Cold, wet weather since then has delayed crop development. Many growers are assessing some stands to determine whether to keep them.

• Corn. The gold rush, for now, is over. Lower corn prices and a strengthening cotton market will shift some acres out of corn. Wet planting field conditions and rutting from last fall could further delay corn planting and reduce acreage.

REGARDING WHEAT STAND DECISIONS

North Carolina Extension Small Grain Specialist Randy Weisz released an advisory that looks at factors to consider when evaluating questionable wheat stands. We’ve posted a link to the paper under the North Carolina heading at agfax.com.

CROP REPORTS

Lewis Wells, Agro Distribution, Gillett, Ark.: "Tractors are running everywhere this week. We hardly have any wheat this year, and what we have looks average. It’s on good, well drained soils. It’s just now being fertilized. We’ve had very little corn over the years, but growers who plant it will have a little more this year, but no drastic increase. Across the Arkansas River where there’s more light cotton ground, growers were working it over the weekend (2/27-28). We should have most of our rice ground ready to plant by April 1."

Howard Small Jr., Ind. Consultant, Colquitt, Ga.: "It’s sunny and 51 degrees right now (afternoon, 3/4), but it’s suppose to be at 70 by Sunday, with no possible rain until Tuesday. We need a break. It’s rained down here about every 2 to 3 days, and nobody has done a lot. One of my growers south of Donaldsonville started planting corn on Monday, then it rained Tuesday. He got back in the field this morning and maybe has 100 acres planted now. There won’t be a lot of corn because fields are so wet, plus the price of corn has gone down while cotton prices keep bumping up. If cotton gets to 80 cents a pound, very little corn will be planted here, I suspect. People got aggressive about corn last year. A couple of guys down here sold their cotton pickers and bought combines. But this year, they won’t have an acre of corn, and they’re going back to buy cotton pickers, which are cheap right now.

"Generally, we start planting corn really late in February, and we’re mostly going full blast by mid March, with most people finishing by April 1. Corn planting will go a lot quicker this year, considering how much acreage will be down. One grower will have 1,500 acres, but he’s the exception, and he’ll start planting next week. Compared to 2009, the corn I work will be off by half or more. Fertilizer prices dropped from last year, but they’re still high, and fertilizer prices kill corn acreage. Irrigation costs weigh into decisions, too. Cotton and peanuts can get by with less fertilizer and water than corn."

Pawel Wiatrak, South Carolina Corn and Soybean Specialist, Blackville, S.C.: "It’s too wet right now (3/4) to do anything in the field. We should see activity pick up around mid March, maybe a little earlier."

Ron Levy, Louisiana Extension Soybean And Feed Grain Specialist: "We caught big rains across the state on Monday (3/1), so very little is going on right now (3/4). Ahead of that, growers scratched the ground a little, and some burndown applications went out, but it’s wet and cold again. We would already like to have made a big portion of the burndown by now, so we may see some yield impact with all these delays, especially with corn. If the weather straightens up right now and field work gets underway, we might even see corn acres increase slightly. But if we get another big rain next week, that could reduce corn acres drastically. We’ve got about 2 weeks left in the planting window."

Jay Chapin, South Carolina Extension Specialist: "We had about 5 inches of snow a couple of weeks ago. El Nino years like this are not wheat years. We knew that going into it, and that’s proving to be the case. Wet, cold weather has delayed everything. Normally, wheat planted in November would be jointing in the first week of March. As it is, plants are still trying to make tillers. We have small plants at this point with low tiller counts and some compromised root systems due to excessive water and lack of oxygen. It has warmed up some, plus nitrogen has gone out, and the color is coming back. But, in effect, we know it’s late.

"Some people will likely throw in the towel and plant full-season soybeans. But some pretty crummy looking wheat could still make 40 bu/acre. Late-planted wheat and the notill wheat look particularly bad because root systems were even more compromised. We have trouble getting notill wheat to grow off in a normal year.

"We certainly have aphids. It’s not like the cold weather slowed them down much, and we’ve seen some surprisingly high populations. We can get good virus suppression in the Coastal Plains if we go after aphids by tankmixing something with the topdress applications in February. But with these conditions, a lot of growers weren’t able to make applications in February. The sooner they can get in now, the better. Even though we’re way behind on development, we can expect that to compress to maybe a one-week delay in harvest."

Edward Twidwell, Louisiana Extension Wheat Specialist: "We’ve had an awful lot of water here this winter, and I don’t think plants tillered that well. And people have had trouble getting fertilizer out due to wet conditions. Over the last few years we’ve had statewide averages of 50 bu/acre. I don’t this will be one of those years. It’s been pretty cold, but we’re expecting warmer conditions, with around 70 this weekend (3/6-7), so wheat should move pretty quickly next week. My main concern is that people haven’t been able to fertilize. If they can’t get it out real soon, I’m afraid we’ll suffer some yield loss, over and above other problems. The last estimate put us at 140,000 acres of wheat. Last year we had about 220,000. A fair number of people wanted to plant more, but absolutely couldn’t due to all the rain last fall."

Erick Larson, Mississippi Extension Grain Specialist: "We didn’t get any wheat planted until well into November last year, much later than normal. And it’s been so wet that the crop hasn’t done much. Several growers are trying to decide whether to keep marginal stands. It’s hard to make a call because we haven’t had the kinds of conducive growing conditions that help plants compensate. They’re trying to decide with some stands whether to make apply nitrogen and herbicides. No corn has been planted to speak of. It’s been relatively wet until the last 10 days. At least the frequency and amount of rain has scaled off. But it’s been really cold. We need that 50-degree minimum soil temperature, and we haven’t had the kind of weather to make that happen."

Wade Thomason, Virginia Extension Grain Specialist: "In terms of the wheat crop, we’re not any different than what folks are reporting in the Carolinas and Maryland. We lost some wheat last fall to flooding, and some other areas were never planted because it was too wet. And we also had late-planted fields. A few farmers managed to apply 25 to 30 pounds/acre of nitrogen on frozen ground in January, and those fields generally look good. We encouraged that since we lost everything applied in the fall, and wheat was hurting, with low tiller densities. But it was tough trying to get that done due to the weather. We planned to do that at all 13 of our experiment locations but were only able to make an application at one of them. We’re really wet, and some areas are still snow covered. We have snow on the ground here, in fact (on 3/5). As you go east to the Tidewater, guys are able to get into some fields, and they’re making decisions now about whether stands are good enough to keep. I haven’t given up on split N applications here in Virginia yet. With a single application 3 weeks before crop demand hits, you could lose a lot of nitrogen and money if a big rain develops.

"Based on conversations with seed company folks, I’m not expecting a big shift in corn acreage from last year. Maybe corn prices aren’t high enough to prompt people to move acres out of beans and mess up their rotations. That’s the big limiting factor here for corn acreage right now."

STATE GRAIN REPORTS

AgFax Southern Grain is published by AgFax Media, Owen Taylor, Editorial Director. It is available to United States residents engaged in grain farming or qualifying ag-related professions. Mailing address: 142 Westlake Drive, Brandon, MS 39047. 601-992-9488 (Fax: 601-992-3503). Email: owen@agfax.com.

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