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The Linn Group


Wednesday Morning Soybean Update

Nate Smith - 03/10/10 8:36am


Soybean prices ended weaker on Tuesday ahead of today’s USDA crop report. Old crop May Soybeans down ½ cent, New crop Nov Soybeans ended 3 ½ cents lower. Trading ranges have been narrow in the last couple of weeks and yesterday was not exception. Traders indicated a hesitance to extend much ahead of the report. Analysts saying that Corn will outperform Soybeans due to wet weather in the Midwest were proven wrong again as Corn outpaced soybeans on the downside for the second consecutive session. Volume on Tuesday was low. Soybeans only traded 108.481, Meal 47,041 and Oil traded 39,167. Funds were net sellers of an estimated 2,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Oil and even in Meal.

Opening call lower. Todays USDA report shows Soybean production above analyst projections. They pegged produciont at 3.359 bil. bu above estimates of 3.34 bil. bu and Feb estimate of 3.36 bil. bu. Carryout for 09/10 is .190 bil bu. below estimates of .197 bil bu. Oil carryout seemed to be a bigger story. Oil carryout was 2.637 bil lbs well above the Feb report of 2.227 bil lbs. World Oil carryout was also raised from the Feb report of 2.73 mmt to 2.89 mmt. US Meal carryout was left unchanged and world carryout was down slightly. The USDA reported today the private sale of 110,000 mt of US Soybeans to China for the 10/11 MY. Now that the report is behind us we need to wait until the end of the Month for the USDA planting intentions. Look for the market to open weaker and possibly recover late. Look to cover May short positions at 943 and resell at 953. Overnight Chinese Soybeans, and Oil closed higher. Meal Lower.

Opening Call Soybeans 2 to 3 cents lower, Oil .10 to .20 lower, Meal .50 to $1.00 lower.

Top News **USDA Mar Soybean 09/10 Production: 3.359 bln bu; est. 3.34 bln bu.; Feb 3.36 bln bu. **US Mar Soybean 09/10 Carryout: 0.190 bln bu. ; est. 0.197; Feb Rpt 0.210 **US Mar Soyoil 09/10 Carryout: 2.637 bln lbs. ; Feb Rpt 2.227 **US Mar Soymeal 09/10 Carryout: 300,000 T ; Feb Rpt 300,000 T

**World 09/10 Soybeans Carryout: 60.67 mmt; Feb Rpt 59.73 **World 09/10 Soymeal Carryout: 5.40 mmt; Feb Rpt 5.76 **World 09/10 Soyoil Carryout: 2.89 mmt; Feb Rpt 2.73

**Mar Brazil 09/10 Soybean Output: 67.0 mmt; Feb Rpt 66.0 **Mar Argentina 09/10 Soybean Output: 53.0 mmt; Feb Rpt 53.0 **Mar China 09/10 Soybean Output: 14.5 mmt; Feb Rpt 14.5

**USDA reported on Wednesday a private sale of 110,000 mt of US Soybeans to China for the 10/11 MY -- Chinese customs data shows soybean imports year to date in Feb 2010 were 11.7% higher than the year ago period -- Chinese customs data shows soybean imports during Feb were 2.95 mln mt down 28% from the prior month and compares to the 3.26 mln mt back in Feb 2009 -- 2010 US Corn planted acres estimated at 89.5 mln acres by Univ of Missouri group -- 2010 US Soybean planted acres estimated at 76.6 mln acres by Univ of Missouri group -- 2010 US Corn Crop size estimated at 13.13 bln bu by Univ of Missouri group -- 2010 US Soybean Crop size estimated at 3.21 bln bu by Univ of Missouri group -- Prompt March delivery of refined palm oil in Malaysian cash markets were quoted at $830/mt while refined palm olein was quoted $845/mt -- Crude palm oil in Malaysian cash markets traded unchanged from yesterday's 2,690-2,700 ringgit/mt range -- Intertek estimates Mar 1-10 Malaysian palmoil exports at 464,889 mt up 25% from the same period a month ago when they estimated 370,727 mt were shipped abroad -- SGS pegs Mar 1-10 Malaysian palmoil exports at 434,340 mt up nearly 6% fromt the same period a month ago when 410,459 mt were shipped abroad -- Pending Tender: 40,000 to 60,000 mt of US or Brazil Soybeans is being sought by Taiwan's BSPA group in a Tuesday, Mar 9th tender & for delivery in FH May, acc. to traders -- Pending Tender: Merchandisers say Uzbekistan in a March 15th tender is seeking 50,000 mt of Brazilian soybeans. Delivery is to a Russian port within 30 days of receiving letter of credit -- MARCH 2010 SOYBEAN FUTURES 3/9/10 : 7 contracts -- MARCH 2010 SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES 3/9/10 : 73 contracts -- MARCH 2010 SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES 3/9/10 : 1 contracts -- Dalian Sep Soybean futures ended 2 higher at 3,842 yuan/mt, while Sep soymeal futures dropped 3 yuan to end at 2,789 yuan/mt -- Dalian soyoil futures for Sep delivery gained 34 yuan ending Wednesday session at 7,588, while Sep palm oil futures ended at 7,058 yuan/mt up just 4 yuan -- May palm oil futures in Malaysia traded 35 ringgit/mt higher to settle Wednesday's session at 2,685 ringgit -- Liffe May rapeseed futures were off -0.50 euro at 295.25 euros/mt. -- Globex Soybean Vol. 95,058; Pit Vol. 8,386; Open Interest Change: + 315 -- Weather: 6 - 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Below Normal Precip. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.02 at $81.47; Gold & Silver: +1.2 at $1123.5 & +0.017 at $17.355; US $ +0.050 at $80.655

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady up 2. FH Mar. +54 to +64, Mar. +50 to +55, April +47 to +51, May +47 to +52, June +47 to +52, July +47 to +55, Oct. +42 to +45, Nov. +45 to +50, Jan. +46 to +50