By Ernie Flint, Ph.D., CCA, Area Agronomist

Mississippi State University

March 8, 2010 - Most farm people have heard the term “false” spring as it relates to the short period of warm weather we often experience during the month of February.  Farmers look forward to this time when in most years they can begin some of their field work, doing such things as cutting stalks, applying burndown herbicides, and maybe even a little tillage in well drained fields that need repairs.  Those who have fruit trees dread this time, especially if temperatures get abnormally warm, since trees like plum, peach, blueberry, and apple may bloom prematurely.  When they bloom early, the buds will often be damaged by later cold periods, leading to a poor fruit and berry crop.  As I mentioned earlier, February weather remained cold throughout the month, and fields were too wet for farmers to do much work. 

The arrival of March has brought on a different weather pattern, in that skies have been clear on many days.  Temperatures during the first week of the month were relatively cold; but it now appears that the second week may bring a period of warmer temperatures.  Farmers are already working in fields, especially in some of the higher land in the Delta.  Most Hill country farmers are waiting because their fields are still too wet to support equipment; however I expect some work to begin during this the second week of March. 

A quick look at the Old Farmers’ Alamanac, which is one of the most esteemed sources of long range weather information, suggests that our area will remain relatively cold through the month of March, with brief periods of rain.  Their April predictions include frequent periods of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures barely above normal for the month.  And don’t forget the old saying that “when March comes in like a lamb, it will go out like a lion”.  It has definitely come in like a lamb this year, so expect the lion later.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center suggests that the current El Nino weather pattern may begin to taper off sometime between April and June.  If things go as usual, we will experience a period of neutral conditions before the beginning of the opposite cycle we refer to as La Nina.  Some prediction models suggest that mild El Nino conditons may last through the remainder of this year; but I believe these events are a little ahead of schedule.  The reason I feel this way is because sunspot numbers are beginning to increase.  The present reading is around 25, which is up from near zero since last summer. 

Increased sunspot numbers suggest to me that this El Nino may actually be nearing its end, and if that happens April and May should have somewhat less rain than usual with slightly warmer temps, followed by another dry June.  This should be no surprise since most of our Junes are dry.  The real test will come in July when we will need our usual July rains to carry corn through pollination and support soybeans and cotton during fruit filling periods.  I expect less rain in July; but this is arrived at by very non-scientific means.  No linear regression models were involved, and my hands never left my arms. 

I am not about to suggest that we should act like spring is here; but I do feel that warm weather will arrive at least a little earlier than usual.  Of course we can’t discount the fact that we had a thunderstorm near the end of February, and if our old rule of thumb is correct we will have “cool” weather about 60 days later near the end of April. The Old Farmers’ Almanac actually suggests this as well.  Meteorologists with the Southeast Climate Consortium, on their AgroClimate website, also predict more freezing temperatures during the month of March.

My suggestions are similar to what they usually are.  Do as little soil disturbance as possible to preserve soil moisture reserves.  I know this may be difficult after last year; but some fields are actually in fairly good condition.  Prepare as best you can for limited rainfall.  This may mean at least some shift toward cotton, corn on fields with the best history during years with reduced rainfall, planting early maturing soybeans as we have suggested for many years, applying somewhat less nitrogen, planting the most drought tolerant varieties, etc.  Plant corn at the proper depth of at least 1.5 inch; and reduce populations a little down to something like 22 to 24,000 plants per acre on non-irrigated fields.  You know the drill as well as I do.   I expect a fairly normal (hot) Mississippi summer; but we are going into it with soils fully charged with water, a big plus for everything.  Global warming proponents will probably try to scare everyone again; but it’s going to be a great year.  Plant a garden just in case you need it.  If we do our part, the Lord will take care of the rest.  Call if you need my help.  Thanks for your time.

Figure 1.  This chart shows sunspot numbers since January 2000, with declining numbers until last fall.  The smooth red curve indicates predicted sunspot numbers.  Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO.