January 22, 2010 – WSI, a part of the
Weather Channel group of companies, expects the upcoming period
(February-April) to average cooler than normal in the eastern two-thirds of
the US, with warmer temperatures in the western US, especially in
March/April. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal
(1971-2000).
"After a brief respite from the bitter cold in late
January, this rather extreme winter appears to be gearing up for an encore
in February," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford. "All of the
important weather and climate factors that we monitor suggest winter will be
coming back with a vengeance in February. This transition back to colder
temperatures is already showing up in two-week forecasts from our computer
models, lending more confidence to the colder forecast trend.
"For the February-April period as a whole, we are
forecasting 1,863 gas-weighted heating degree days (a measure of the demand
for energy to heat a home or business) on a national basis, which is
approximately 8% more than last year and about 2% more than the 1971-2000
mean."
In February, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies
as follows:
Northeast -- Colder than
normal
Southeast -- Colder than
normal
N Central -- Colder than
normal
S Central -- Colder than
normal
Northwest -- Colder than
normal
Southwest -- Colder than
normal
"The WSI February forecast shows cooler-than-normal
temperatures across the entire country with significantly colder
temperatures expected in the North Central, Rockies and Southeast regions,"
said Paul Flemming, Director of Power & Gas at ESAI, "Natural gas demand
will be strong with particularly high demand from the North Central states,
which depend more heavily on gas for heating than in the Northeast.
Delivered gas prices in the constrained areas of the Northeast markets
should see more volatility with cooler temperatures. Given the strong gas
demand expectations, we expect to see some significant inventory draws in
February. Electric loads will be at the high end of expectations and power
prices will be impacted by higher delivered gas prices in the eastern
markets."
In March, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast -- Colder than
normal
Southeast -- Colder than
normal
N Central -- Colder than
normal
S Central -- Colder than
normal
Northwest -- Warmer than
normal
Southwest -- Warmer than
normal
"For March, WSI is forecasting colder-than-normal
temperatures east of the Mississippi and warmer temperatures in the western
regions. Natural gas demand is likely to be slightly above-average as lower
demand in the warmer western regions offsets strong demand in the east.
Power prices in the east will continue to be responsive to delivered gas
prices, but lower loads in March will moderate prices," said Paul Flemming.
"The thing to watch for in the March power markets will be the start of the
maintenance season with nuclear outages commencing in many areas. The
nuclear outages will further add to late season gas demand."
In April, WSI forecasts:
Northeast -- Colder than
normal
Southeast -- Colder than
normal
N Central -- Warmer than
normal
S Central -- Colder than
normal
Northwest -- Warmer than
normal
Southwest -- Warmer than
normal
"In April, WSI is forecasting significantly
warmer-than-normal temperatures across the western regions but generally
cooler temperatures east of the Mississippi. In April, gas demand will be
moderate as the heating season draws to a close. Cooler temperatures in the
Northeast will be slightly bullish for electric loads, but generator
maintenance schedules will play a more bullish role in power markets than
changes in weather patterns," said to Paul Flemming.
