Soybeans ended sharply higher up 24 cents on Thursday. This was the highest close since September 18th. Traders say some was short covering but talk seemed to build on questioning yield and acreage projections being the chief reason ahead of the report. Weather has played a big role in the recent rally as well. Many farmers are struggling with harvest this fall as cold wet weather has prevented farmers from replacing depleted soy stocks. Volume on Thursday was very heavy. Soybeans traded 205,348, Meal 56,444 and oil 73,387. Funds were net buyers of an estimated 7,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Oil and 2,500 meal.

Opening call lower. The USDA crop report released this morning shows soybean production at : 3.250 bln bu.; expected 3.28 bln bu., slightly above the September report of 3.245. Yield is projected to be 42.4 bu/ac; expected 42.8 bu/ac; slightly above the September report of 42.3 bpa. World soybean carryout is projected to be 54.79 mmt above September’ s estimate of 50.53 mmt. Markets are called lower. Many feel the report was not as bullish as they had anticipated with the recent rallies in corn and soybeans. So now that we have it behind us can the markets continue the rally. Consensus is that this report does not have enough in it to take us higher but the close today will determine that. Look for selling on the open and resistance at 935 ½. For the week so far we are 46 ½ cents higher. Overnight Chinese Meal, Soybeans and oil closed higher.

Post Report Opening Calls: Soybeans 8-10 lower, Meal $3.00 to $4.00 lower. Oil .20 to .40 lower

 

 

Top News -- Chinese grain stockpiles in gov't owned warehouses totaled 225.4 mln mt at the end of March 2009, acc. to China's Nat'l Development & Reform Commission. The audit was in response to questions about grainaries overstating their levels the audit found 99.7% of the grain compared to reported levels -- Saskatchewan weather cold wet conditions last week delayed harvest, 76% was complete compared to the year ago 80%. Anecdotal evidence from the report suggest farmers are worried about the condition of unharvested grain & oilseed -- Brazilian sugar industry pegs 09/10 cane sugar ethanol production through October 1 at 16.4 bln liters, slightly below last year's 17 bln liters produced in the same time period -- Pending Tender: Between 40-60,000 mt of US or Brazil Soybeans is being sought in a Thursday, Oct 8th tender by Taiwan's BSPA group, acc. to traders -- Pending Tender: Merchandisers say between 3-4,000 mt of Rapeseed is being sought by Israeli group in an October 7th tender -- Pending Tender: India is seeking 12-15,000 mt of palm olein in a Sept 29th tender, for shipment by Oct 15th, acc. to state trading corp of India -- Pending Tender: Sept 30th is the deadline for Egyptian tender to purchase 15,000 mt of Soyoil & 15,000 mt of Sunseed oil for delivery in November, acc. to its vice chmn -- Pending Tender: USDA's CCC seeking 5,500 tons of soymeal for donation to Senegal with bids due by Sept 29th. -- Liffe Nov rapeseed futures were off -1.50 euro at 258.0 euros/mt. -- China futures back off holiday. The Dalian Exchange opened sharply higher in beans but settled back to close near unchanged; soymeal traded higher as well but settled up 59. Domestic cash meal was generally higher in all markets up 20 to 50 RMB; soyoil traded sharply higher settling up 154. Domestic cash soyoil was generally higher in all markets up 50 to 100 RMB -- Dec Malaysian palm oil futures were 55 ringgit better at 2,085 ringgit/mt.($613.87) -- Globex Soybean Vol. 171,107; Pit Vol. 26,780; Open Interest Change: + 17,645 -- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Above Precip. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.67 at $71.02; Gold & Silver: -6.9 at $1049.4 & -0.150 at $17.665; US $ +0.215 at $76.345

Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans: FH Oct. +85 to +95, Oct. +80 to +86, Nov. +82 to +86, Dec. +84 to +87, Jan. +83 to +87, Feb. +55 to +??, Mar. +50 to ?? April +35 to ??

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