Sunbelt Ag News

DOANE: Cotton Comment

Closing Rice: Futures retraced a portion of recent gains 12-16

Closing Cotton: Market Hits Third Successive Rally High 12-16

Closing Livestock: February Lean Hogs Debuts with Triple Digit Push 12-16

Closing Grain: Finish Higher 12-16

U.S. Stock Market News 12-16

Midday Grain: Market Mixed 12-16

Linn Soybean Commentary: Heavy Volume And Continued Demand Out Of China Support Bean Complex 12-16

Linn Corn Commentary: Funds Lead The Way 12-16

Midday Livestock: Livestock Futures Gaining Momentum 12-16

Kansas: K-State Agronomist Discusses Vertical Tillage - What it Is and How it Works 12-16

Davidson's Farm: Test Plot Results 12-16

Texas: Multi-County Ag Conference Set January 19 in LaCoste 12-16

Opening Cotton: Bounces to Trade Higher 12-16

Texas: Duncan Joins AgriLife Extension as State Small Grains Specialist 12-16

Opening Grains: All Higher Overnight in Relatively Light Activity 12-16

Opening Livestock: Cattle Contracts Should Open Mixed 12-16

K. Good's Farm Policy: Climate Issues; and Chairman Peterson 12-16

Owen Taylor: Why (maybe) it always seems to rain in town 12-16

Georgia Pecans: Grower deliveries light going into second half of December 2009 12-15

Georgia: Nominations Open For Young Peanut Grower Of The Year 12-15

Louisiana Pecans: Deliveries still light, trading interest increases 12-15

Texas Pecans: At mid-December, deliveries light, demand good for better pecans 12-15

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends 12-15

Dairies to Reduce Gas Emissions 12-15

Taxlink by Andy Biebl 12-15

Linn Wheat Commentary: Overnight markets were weaker as the U.S. 12-15

Texas Research: Strip Tillage and Primed Acclimation Promising for Crop Improvement 12-15

Tennessee: 2010 Milan No-Till Field Day Scheduled 12-15

Louisiana: 2010 Rice Leadership Development Class Announced 12-14

Indiana: Farmers face latest harvest since 1972 12-14

Ag Lending Changes: Struggle for Bankers and Farmers 12-14

Arkansas: Rain Damage Loss Remains at $309 Million 12-14

USDA National Weekly Rice Summary 12-14

Virginia Harvest: Seeing Better than Expected Grades 12-14

Owen Taylor Up Early: Asian Oil Demand, Onions For Energy, Another Tool For Remote Moisture Monitoring 12-14

Mississippi Row Crops Short Course Programs Now On Line: Roundup resistance, insects, fertility, disease management 12-14

FMC introduces Broadhead rice herbicide 12-14

Peanuts: Argentine Planting Off To Reasonable Start, Export Report Includes U.S.-Bound Tonnage 12-14

U.S. Diesel Fuel Cost Survey 12-4

Fruit and Vegetables from STAT

More Ag News | Grain Futures Newswire

Sugar, U.S. Nut Markets

Upcoming Events:

(FD: field day; SS: scout schools)

2010 National Cotton Council Beltwide Cotton Conferences, January 4-7. New Orleans Marriott Hotel and Sheraton New Orleans Hotel.

Tri-State Soybean Conference, Jan. 8, Stoneville, MS.

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 9 & 23, Zion Lutheran Church, Beloit (2 sessions).

National Conservation Systems Cotton & Rice Conference
Tunica, MS - Jan. 12-13.

Southern Field Crop Alliance Conference, Jan. 13 & 14, Tunica, Ms.

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 16 & 30, Fisher Community Center, Hiawatha (2 sessions).

Texas West Plains Ag Conference, Jan. 18, South Plains College, Hockley County, 806-894-3159 (continuing ed).

Texas Drip Irrigation Workshop, Jan. 19, Brownfield, Terry County, 806-637-4060 (continuing ed).

Texas Southern Mesa Ag Conference, Jan. 19, Lamesa, Dawson County, 806-872-3444 (continuing ed).

Texas Multi-County Agriculture Conference, Jan. 19, 8:30 am, Catered Lunch, Our Lady of Grace Parish, LaCoste.

Texas Caprock Crop Production Conference, Jan. 20, Floyd County Friends Unity Center, Floydada, Floyd County, 806-983-4912 (continuing ed).

North Carolina Southern Cotton Growers/Southeastern Cotton Ginners Annual Meeting, Jan. 20-23, 2 pm, The Westin, Charlotte (pre-register).

Texas Llano Estacado Cotton Conference, Jan. 21, Muleshoe, Bailey County, 806-272-4584 (continuing ed).

Louisiana 2010 Agricultural Outlook Conference: “Keeping Louisiana Agriculture Competitive," Jan. 21, State Evacuation Facility, LSU AgCenter's Dean Lee REC, Alexandria.

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 9 & 23, Zion Lutheran Church, Beloit (2 sessions).

Southern Cotton Growers & Ginners Annual Meeting, Jan. 20-23, The Westin, Charlotte, NC.

3rd Annual Georgia Cotton Conference & Georgia Cotton Production Workshop, January 27, 7:30 am, UGA Tifton Campus Conference Center, Tifton.

Kansas: `Keeping the Family Farming´ Workshop, Jan. 16 & 30, Fisher Community Center, Hiawatha (2 sessions).

Texas Llano Estacado Corn Conference, Feb. 9, Castro County Exposition Building, Dimmitt, Castro County, 806-647-4115 (continuing ed).

Texas South Plains Ag Conference, Feb. 10, Brownfield, Terry County, 806-637-4060, (continuing ed).

Texas Cottonseed Variety Meeting, Feb. 10, Farwell, Parmer County at 806-481-3619, (continuing ed).

Texas Cotton Production Meeting, Feb. 11, Lamesa, Dawson County, 806-872-3444, (continuing ed).

Louisiana: 75th Annual Livestock Show Feb. 13-20. Lamar-Dixon Expo Center, Gonzales.

RTWG (Rice Technical Working Group) 33rd Conference, Feb. 22-25, Biloxi, MS.

Texas Cotton Production Meeting, Feb. 22, Tahoka, Lynn County, 806-561-4562, (continuing ed).

Texas Cotton Variety Selection, Cotton Outlook and Fertilizer Management, Feb. 23, Brownfield, Terry County, 806-637-4060, (continuing ed). 

Tennessee: 26th Milan No-Till Crop Production Field Day, July 22, tennu@bellsouth.net

To list an event, contact Owen Taylor

 

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The Linn Group


Corn Commentary - Funds lead the way

James Riley - 12/16/09 8:36am


The corn market was slightly lower on Tuesday as continued weak demand, a stronger US$ and the recent rally all helped push corn lower. The March contract closed down 1 and we only had around a 5 cent trading range. It was a pretty quiet day, as one trader said, it seemed like most traders went home midday. The corn market has rallied almost 30 cents in the last couple of days, so it was probably due a quiet day. Keep in mind, corn didn’t really sell off, it just didn’t rally as the prospect of fund rebalancing looms over the next couple of weeks and the general thinking is they are going to be buying corn. On the export front, the USDA announced that Taiwan bot 120,000 mt of US corn on Tuesday. The volume on Tuesday was light again at only 130,000 contracts and funds were light sellers of 2,000+ contracts.

Overnight, the corn market closed slightly higher after trading lower early in the night session. The March contract closed up about 2 cents which was near the high of the night session and about 5 cents off the lows. The outside markets are relatively quiet this morning with stocks and crude slightly higher and the US$ lower. The beans were stronger yesterday before giving it up at the end of the day and that will help support corn for the time being as export sales remain excellent for soybeans. We continue to hear talk about index funds will be in the grain markets early next year to buy corn, beans and wheat to rebalance and that is what the market is betting on right now to support prices. Nobody wants to be short in front of possible fund buying regardless of what the fundamentals tell us. Also, we still need to get farther along in the growing season in South America before deciding that they have a good crop. From what we are hearing, there are some problem areas, but for the most part, they are getting the crop planted and they are receiving adequate moisture. Corn will be called to open a couple higher in line with the night session, but the path of least resistance seems to be higher. We are getting into holiday markets which usually means lighter volume and bigger market swings.

Globex Overnight

Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCH10 409^4 2^0 410^0 404^2 5855 ZCK10 420^2 2^0 420^2 414^6 354 ZCN10 429^0 1^6 429^0 424^0 481 ZCU10 434^0 1^6 434^0 429^4 109

Early Opening Calls: 1-3 cents better

Top News -- S Korean feed maker passed on its announced 165,000 mt Corn tender & only purchased 2,000 mt of Barley for Jan delivery, acc. to traders. The barley was bought at reported $203.50/mt & said prices were too high for 165,000 mt of Corn -- In a Japanese SBS tender, the Ag Ministry purchased 25,000 mt of food grade Barley & 5,500 mt of barley for beer making. The purchases were nearly inline with announced volumes -- Retender announced for Dec 17th by Taiwan Sugar Corp for 23,000 mt of US Corn -- Director of Corn growers assoc in Buenos Aires says the group expects 14 mln mt of output next year up from their prior estimate of 12 mln mt on better yields after beneficial rains. This would be the 1st crop expansion since 2007 when drought hit the country for the past couple years. -- Prices for Corn, soybean & wheat are expected to average in 2010 $4.19/bu, $9.63/bu & $5.25/bu respectively, acc. to forecast by JPMorgan -- Beef exports shuttered as domestic prices in Argentina jump, reportedly the trade office in Argentina discontinued certificates for beef export today while industry officials expect the blockage to continue for 15 days to allow sufficient supply during the holiday season. -- North Carolina meat packer gets banned by Russian gov't from exporting to that country after antibiotic reportedly found in shipment by inspection team in Russia -- Beginning April 1, 2010 CME Group will shorten ethanol contract specs load out delivery time to 10 days from the current 17 days; will require lower max content of denaturant & require deliveries to match RFA guidelines -- Brazilian gov't report estimates 09/10 ethanol output at 25.9 bln L down 2.9 bln L from their Sept estimate, while ethanol from cane is expected to drop to 23.7 bln L from 25.7 bln L in Sept estimate -- Analysts note futures and over-the-counter ethanol derivative interest is at record levels, totaling 50,000 contracts between the two -- Analysts say spot ethanol margins have slipped 50 cents/bu in the last week due to aggressive hedging by ethanol plants and growing uncertainty over ethanol demand in the first half of 2010 -- The final plant acquired by Valero was formerly owned by Renew Energy, who threatened to close the plant if a sale was not made soon, and is located in Wisconsin; Valero paid $72 million for this particular plant -- Two of the three plants Valero acquired were formerly owned by VeraSun - the Linden, IN & Bloomingburg, OH facility - and are currently idle - restarting these two plants would consume nearly 75 million bushels of corn per year-- Valero purchased three more Midwest ethanol plants, taking their total capacity up to 1.1 billion gallons - the company paid $272 million for roughly 330 million gallons of ethanol capacity -- Dalian Corn futures were higher, May closed 3 yuan better at 1,798, while Sep futures added 4 to end at 1,873 yuan/mt -- Liffe Jan corn futures were off -0.50 euro at 132.25 euros/mt. -- Globex Corn Vol: 110,942; Pit Vol.: 9,757; Open Interest change: 1,985 -- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Normal to Below temps. Normal to Below Precip. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.56 at $71.25; Gold & Silver: +9.2 at $1132.2 & +0.080 at $17.535; US $ -0.130 at $77.170

Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady off 1. Dec. +?? to +21, Jan. +25 to +31, Feb. +36 to +39, Mar. +39 to +43, April +36 to +38, May +36 to +38, June +36 to +38, July +36 to +38

TREND:

Corn also was unable to rally much today closing well off the highs. Look to buy this market on a test of 3.90. Risk a close under 3.79. It only takes a trade over 4.13 to make the weekly charts look good. A close over 4.25 would be enough to push this trade through the 4.50 highs for a test of 4.85. A January trade? Could be over equally as fast with a major set back when the funds are through buying. There is nothing here fundamentally to support that type of rally?

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