Soybeans continued their rally on Thursday. The fifth consecutive rally closed beans 16 cents higher in July and 14 ¾ higher in Nov. This was considered an impressive performance given the fact that the $USD was stronger, harvest weather is excellent in South America and Midwest filed work is very active. All the fundamentals would seem to argue against a rally yet the market has relentlessly climbed through near term resistance levels. Funds were active buyers of an estimated 7,000 Soybeans, 2,000 Oil and 3,000 Meal. The volume was very heavy too. Soybeans traded 201,105, Meal 70,828 and Oil trade 79,218.
Opening call, slightly higher. Todays end of the week trade should speak volumes about the direction for the soy complex for the next several sessions. Technically this is close into new territory as the 950 level has been significant resistance in the November contract. Questions remain whether the weekly charts can hold above these levels for today. Corn planting progress has been substantial this week and some are concerned that it could cause some farmers to shift acres back to corn at the expense of bean acres. $USD is trading slightly higher this morning. Overnight Chinese Soybeans, Meal and Oil futures close higher.
Opening Call: Soybeans 1 to 2 cents higher. Meal .50 to $1.00 higher, Oil .05 to .10 higher.
Top News -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says the Corn and Soybean harvest have been slowed by rains. They estimate Soybean harvest at 44% complete vs. 30% last week and 455 last year. Corn harvest was estimated at 55% complete vs. 50% last week and 595 last year. -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its production estimate for Soybeans unchanged at 54.5 mmt. and Corn also unchanged at 21 mmt. -- Merchandisers say 60,000 mt of Brazil Soybeans were sold by Cargill to Taiwan group on Friday for shipment in June -- Malaysian Crude Palm Oil cash markets traded 2,535-2,540 ringgit/mt. overnight -- April delivery of refined palm oil was quoted overnight @ 820.00/mt , while April palm olein was quoted @ 825.00/mt. overnight -- Discussions are sought by Russia's ag minister with Ukraine officials about striking deal to use their ports for grain exports -- Veteran grain analyst looking at anecdotal evidence expects this coming Monday's national average corn planting around 20% complete. He notes that Illinois would lead with 40-45% complete, IA at 12% complete, NE in the 8-10% range, but slightly wetter conditions in OH & IN would slow planting there. -- Top official at the currently state run Agriculture Bank of China, says the upcoming IPO in the 3Q could bring at least $30 billion, that would be more than the $22 billion in the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China IPO -- Pending Tender: Traders on Tuesday said Egypt is seeking 20,000 mt of Soyoil and 20,000 mt of sunseed oil with a bid deadline of Apr 20, for arrival in LH May/FH June -- Dalian Jan. Soybean futures traded up +18 @ 3,955 yuan/mt. traded volume of 197,450 contracts. -- Dalian Jan. Soymeal was up +13 @ 2,878 yuan/mt. with a volume of traded cotracts of 890,748. -- Dalian Sept. Palm Oil was up +8 @ 6,990 yuan/mt., while Jan. Soyoil was up +34 @ 7,878 yuan/mt. -- Malaysian July Palm OIl futures were +8.00 ringgit to trade @ 2,518 ringgit/mt., range on the day was 2,525- 2,504. -- Liffe May Rapeseed was up +0.75 overnight @ 308.25 euros/mt. -- Globex Soybean Vol. 182,859; Pit Vol. 13,661; Open Interest Change: + 6,888 -- Weather: 6 - 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Below Precip east, Above West. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -1.07 at $84.44; Gold & Silver: -6.4 at $153.9 & -0.138 at $18.295; US $ +0.185 at $80.770
Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady off 2. Apr. +34 to +40, LH April +36 to +40, May +38 to +45, June +38 to +40, July +40 to +48, Oct. +47 to +50, Nov. +50 to +55, Jan. +50 to +55