The corn market closed higher on technical buyer and firmer cash prices. The July and December contracts closed about 5 cents higher right up against the highs of the day. The corn market continues to fight off all bearish fundamental news as it goes higher. We are seeing some firmer basis levels as they are trying to pry loose some of the corn from farmers that have planting on their minds and aren’t selling any corn. The stronger cash prices are giving futures support at a time when they need it as it seems most farmers are planting corn across the Midwest and we should see a good jump in crop progress. The export sales yesterday were also supportive as it shows that corn has support at these prices and with the higher livestock prices, end users are making profits at these price levels for corn. The USDA announced they will resurvey farmers in North and South Dakota on corn harvest and release those results in the May report. The volume remains strong, 255,000, as the spread volume starts to dwindle and funds were buyers of about 7,000 contracts.
Overnight, the corn market closed down about 2 cents which was about the middle of the trading range as corn traded lower most of the night. There isn’t a lot new news out this morning as we have a battle between the bulls and bears on which way corn should be going. Right now, the bulls are winning as we continue to see short covering in front of some very bearish fundamental news. As I was told by a wise veteran, the markets know all, they have more money than you do, and they love teaching traders lessons. That is what we may be seeing right now with the corn market continuing to go higher even when the fundamentals telling us it should be going lower. The corn market is called to open lower this morning in line with where it closed last night, so it could be interesting if the grain markets get down early and are able to recover and trade higher by the close. Technically, we are going to see strong weekly closes unless we get a big sell off today. This could lead to very volatile markets. Your head tells you that traders are not going to want to go into the weekend long corn because we expect to make a lot of progress planting, but at this point, the market may be looking ahead at better demand and ignoring planting. The outside markets are negative grains with crude lower and the US$ stronger, but these have gone largely ignored lately.
Globex Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZCK10 361^4 -1^6 362^4 359^4 13196 ZCN10 371^6 -2^0 372^6 369^6 13920 ZCU10 382^0 -2^2 383^0 380^2 1449 ZCZ10 392^2 -2^0 393^4 390^4 4021
Early Opening Calls: off 1-2 cents
Top News -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says the Corn and Soybean harvest have been slowed by rains. They estimate Soybean harvest at 44% complete vs. 30% last week and 455 last year. Corn harvest was estimated at 55% complete vs. 50% last week and 595 last year. -- 50,000 mt of US Corn was sold by Bunge to Taiwan on Friday for a reported price of $230.42/mt, with shipment between mid June thru July -- After this week's Chinese corn sales disappointed, the country will reportedly release 1.4 mln mt of Corn from state stockpiles, with 800,000 mt to be released in 3 top growing regions in the northeast of the country -- Pending Tender: Japanese Ag Ministry sets SBS tender on Apr 21st for 300,000 mt of feed grade Barley and shipment is expected in late July -- Pending Tender: 43,000 mt of food grade Barley is being sought by Japan's Ag Ministry in an April 23rd SBS tender -- Dalian Sept. Corn futures were +1 @ 1,913 yuan mt. contracts traded was 34,660
-- Liffe June Corn futures were down -1.50 overnight @ 141.50 -- Globex Corn Vol: 220,964; Pit Vol: 27,684; Open Interest change: - 945 -- Weather: 6 - 10 Day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Below Precip east, Above West.
-- Outside markets: Energy Complex -1.07 at $84.44; Gold & Silver: -6.4 at $153.9 & -0.138 at $18.295; US $ +0.185 at $80.770
Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady. April +44 to +46, May +45 to +47, June +39 to +42, July +44 to +47, Oct. +41 to +44, Nov. +41 to +44, Jan. +38 to +41
TREND:
The corn fundamentals are not quite as overwhelmingly bearish. Planting progress has been without comparison in some areas. A good part of central Ill is already done and about 45 days ahead of last year. Look for the state to be 40 to 45 pct complete on the Monday report. Tenn. and Ky are in similar shape. Ind, Ohio, Iowa, Minn, and Neb are ahead of normal but not close to the Ill progress. Look for the country to be north of 20 pct complete compared to 12 for the 5 year avg.
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