SOYBEANS remain in a sideways trading range that has contained the market since mid-January. Essentially, the range is $9.75 to $9.11 for May and $9.49?$8.99 for November. A close outside either range will indicate further movement in the direction of the breakout. This month's Supply/Demand Report didn?t really give the market any new information. However, USDA did increase projected exports by 25 million bushels and, at the same time, reduced their residual number. The report kept projected ending stocks at 190 million bushels. Estimates for Argentina and Brazil were increased to 54 million metric tons and 67.5 million metric tons, respectively. Combine that with increased 2010 plantings in the United States and upside potential appears limited, meaning the above-mentioned breakout would likely be to the bottomside.

CORN remains down. USDA took the earlier grain-stocks report to heart and reduced feed use by 100 million bushels. Then, they added that same amount to the projected ending stocks, bringing them up to 1.899 billion bushels. That number may top 2 billion bushels by the end of the marketing year. This year, big stocks and increased plantings are expected to keep the current downtrend intact. Good planting weather is expected for the near future, and excellent progress is anticipated. Weather problems will likely provide the only opportunity for price rallies this spring. Rebounds will have resistance at $3.80, $3.95 and $4.10.

WHEAT received a small surprise when USDA increased exports and feed use, a move that reduced projected ending stocks to 950 million bushels. It?s good news, but wheat will need a lot more to get the market out of the doldrums. Obviously, lower prices are increasing demand, but U.S. and world stocks are huge. Furthermore, early reports suggest good yields for this year's crop. For example, while Texas acreage is down 12 percent from last year, production is projected 83 percent higher at 112 million bushels. That?s their largest crop in four years. July support starts at the recent low near $4.60, but don?t be surprised to see the market test the 2009 low of $4.25. Current resistance is located between $4.90?$5.10.

COTTON
Tightening domestic and global supplies are providing pricing opportunities. In its April Supply/Demand Report, USDA made a final adjustment in ?09 production numbers and cut 251,000 bales. Projected ending stocks are just 3 million bales. Producers are projected to increase 2010 plantings by 15 percent to 10.5 million acres. Production is expected to be 16?17 million bales, about the same as use for 2010?11. Old-crop May has established support at 77?78 cents with resistance at 84 cents. December futures have traded between 74?76 cents for six weeks now; however, with any planting or weather problems, the crop should test the contract high of 78.25 cents. The March 2008 high of 91.38 cents is the next obvious chart point above current old-crop resistance of 84 cents.

RICE

Technically, futures appear to have bottomed. A rebound started prior to the April Supply/Demand Report, which offered positive adjustments in use projections. USDA raised exports by 3 million hundredweight and increased domestic use by 5.5 million hundredweight. In turn, projected ending stocks dropped a like amount to 32.3 million hundredweight, just a little above beginning stocks. Most of the adjustments were in long grain, where ending stocks are projected to be just 15.8 million hundredweight, compared to last year?s 20.1 million hundredweight. Medium-grain stocks at 14.1 million hundredweight are projected to almost double last year?s 8 million hundredweight. This year, good planting weather suggests producers will likely follow through on plans to increase acreage by more than 10 percent. Internationally, the market continues to operate under pressure as Thailand makes plans to move intervention stocks. September futures will need to close above the recent high of $13 to reach retracement objectives of $13.11, $13.27 and $13.43. Support starts at $12.60, then the contract low of $12.20.
 

CATTLE
Strong cash fundamentals are keeping live cattle futures near contract high levels. Packers are turning a substantial profit thanks to strong beef demand. Marketings don?t reflect last fall?s drop in placements, and average weights are around 20 pounds lighter than a year ago. This suggests that feedlots are pulling cattle early to take advantage of higher prices. June recently set a new contract high of $100.20, which could be a significant top. The market could be establishing support at $97.70.

After they charted topping signals last week, HOG futures are showing signs of strength. Strong cash fundamentals continue to support futures, and composite values are close to 40 percent higher than a year ago, even with a 3-percent increase in production. To suggest further strength is possible, June needs to move above resistance at $85.90.

POULTRY

Commercial hatcheries set 204 million eggs in incubators last week. This was up slightly from the corresponding week a year earlier. Average hatchability for chicks hatched during the week was 83 percent. Average hatchability is calculated by dividing chicks hatched during the week by eggs set three weeks earlier. Broiler growers placed 169 million chicks for meat production last week. Placements were down slightly from the comparable week a year earlier. Cumulative placements between Jan. 3, 2010 and last week were 2.17 billion, down slightly from the same period a year earlier.