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DTN Grain Close: Crop Prices Defy Weather

Ernst Undesser
From DTN January 16, 2018

DTN Grain Close: Crop Prices Defy Weather

Row crops closed higher Tuesday in spite of beneficial rains reported in Argentina over the weekend and winter wheat prices finished lower in spite of bitter cold temperatures reaching the U.S. Southern Plains. Tuesday’s largest percentage gain came from March soybean meal, up $5.80 to its highest close in a month.

 

Soybeans are the midday leader with flat corn trade, and weaker wheat action.

CORN

Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade struggling to hold early gains with action remaining at the lower end of the range. Ethanol margins should remain stable, with warmer weather coming to boost production, while the feed demand should moderate with the warm up. Ethanol futures have edged slightly lower with the energy complex this morning.

Basis has been flat to a little better with carry steady to slightly stronger to start the week. The weekly export inspections remained soft at 543,689 metric tons. On the March chart support is the $3.45 contract low. Resistance is at the 20-day moving average at 3.50 then the 50-day at $3.53.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade building on the strong finish from Friday with a somewhat drier forecast for Brazil and mixed weather for Argentina. Trade is about 4 cents off the high off the session at midday. Meal is $3 to $4 higher, and 15 to 25 points lower. South American weather is drier in Northern Brazil and wetter in southern Brazil, along with mixed in Argentina.

Basis and carry remains mostly sideways. The world export inspections were up slightly at 1.23 million metric tons. On the March, support is the 10-day and 20-day $9.64 that we moved back, and resistance the 50-day at $9.86.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents lower at midday with Chicago the downside leader at midday with spring wheat near unchanged. The current shot of cold area should fade out, with warmer weather on tap, and potentially some better moisture in the extended forecast. The dollar fallen down to 90 on the index with the general trend remaining down as the old support levels failed to hold at the end of last week.

On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the lows at $4.10, with the day low of $4.21 becoming nearby support with the 20-day at $4.29 as the first level of resistance.

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Ernst Undesser
From DTN January 16, 2018