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WASDE Oilseeds: Smaller U.S. Soybean, Peanut, Cottonseed Production

Ernst Undesser
From USDA January 12, 2018

WASDE Oilseeds: Smaller U.S. Soybean, Peanut, Cottonseed Production

U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is estimated at 131.3 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by increases for canola and sunflowerseed.

Soybean production is estimated at 4,392 million bushels, down 33 million on lower yields. Harvested area is estimated at 89.5 million acres, up fractionally from the previous forecast. Yield is estimated at 49.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels, led by reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 1,950 million. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2,160 million, reflecting lagging sales commitments through December and increased competition with higher soybean production and export forecasts for Brazil.

Ending stocks are projected at 470 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous forecast. The 2017/18 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $8.80 to $9.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint.

The soybean oil price forecast of 32 to 35 cents per pound is lowered 1 cent at the midpoint. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $295 to $335 per short ton.

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Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly offset by lower production for Argentina and the United States.

The Brazil soybean crop is increased 2 million tons to 110 million reflecting higher yield estimates in recent government reports. Soybean production for Argentina is reduced 1 million tons to 56 million on lower area planted to date, particularly in northern Argentina.

Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Ukraine and lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina.

Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 176.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month. Lower U.S. soybean and Australian rapeseed shipments are partly offset by increased soybean exports for Brazil and rapeseed for Ukraine.

Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 111.2 million tons, up 0.4 million mainly on higher soybean stocks for Brazil and the United States and higher rapeseed stocks for Australia. Partly offsetting are lower soybean stocks for Argentina and sunflowerseed stocks for the EU.

Full report.

Ernst Undesser
From USDA January 12, 2018