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WASDE Coarse Grains: Larger U.S. Corn Production, Decreased Demand

Ernst Undesser
From USDA January 12, 2018

WASDE Coarse Grains: Larger U.S. Corn Production, Decreased Demand

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and greater stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million from last month as an increase in yield to a record 176.6 bushels per acre is partially offset by a 0.4-millionacre reduction in harvested area.

Among the major producing states, yields are estimated to be record high in Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio. FSI is raised 10 million bushels, reflecting an estimated amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose during September-November that was above expectations. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5,550 million based on indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks.

With supply rising and use falling, corn stocks are up 40 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.25 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint based on observed prices to date.

Sorghum production for 2017/18 is estimated 8 million bushels higher as an increase in yield to 72.1 bushels per acre more than offsets a marginal reduction in harvested area. Grain sorghum prices are forecast at $3.15 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.

Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 0.3 million tons higher to 1,324.2 million. This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption and greater trade relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Russia, Vietnam and the Philippines more than offsetting an increase for Pakistan.

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Russia’s corn production is down based on harvest results to date. Vietnam corn production is reduced as the impact of heavy rain during the growing season in the northern production area was worse than previously expected. Barley production is down as a reduction for Russia more than offsets an increase for Argentina.

Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include lower corn exports for Russia, partially offset by an increase for Thailand. Brazil’s 2016/17 corn exports are reduced based on observed shipments to date for the local marketing year that started in March 2017. Imports for 2017/18 are lowered for Iran but increased for Vietnam and the Philippines.

Foreign corn ending stocks are higher than last month, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil and Pakistan. Global corn stocks, at 206.6 million, are up 2.5 million from last month.

Full report.

Ernst Undesser
From USDA January 12, 2018