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DTN Grain Close: Cheap Grains Getting Cheaper

Ernst Undesser
From DTN/Telvent December 7, 2017

DTN Grain Close: Cheap Grains Getting Cheaper

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images

Grain prices put in a bearish performance Thursday with January soybeans down 10 3/4 cents and all three wheats falling to new contract lows. March corn dropped to within a few cents of this year’s low as noncommercial traders continue to stay away from large grain supplies.

 

Midday: Trade is lower across the board at midday, led by soybeans and wheat.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday in slow trade; the trading range has only been 3 cents. The weekly export sales came in at 876,400 tons versus expectations of 600,000 to 900,000 metric tons. South American weather is not lending support today but the weather bias has been swinging on both sides this week, so many argue it favors continued sideways trade.

On the March chart support is the contract low at $3.48 3/4 printed three weeks ago with resistance at the $3.54 20-day moving average then the 50-day moving average at 3.59. The one-month range is 15 cents and it appears we could test the low side of the week as we finish off the week in late trade today and tomorrow.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 8 to 10 cents lower at midday with sideways momentum. Futures have been down 15 cents; this move puts trade right back into the middle of our 2 month trading range. Meal is down $4.50 at midday with soybean oil down 6-10 points. Outside markets are mixed. South American weather looks better in the 8-14 day.

The weekly export sales came in at 2.015 million tons versus huge expectations of 1.0 to 1.5 million metric tons, yet the market is taking this as buy the rumor sell the fact off this positive demand number. Meal sales were good at 166,400 tons and bean oil at 21,000 tons.

On the January chart support is at the $9.89 20-day moving average, which we traded below briefly, then the 100-day at $9.l81. Resistance is at the $9.96 10-day, then the $10.15 4-month high reached on Tuesday.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is down 3 to 6 cents at midday across the three markets. Spillover direction from row crops and a lack of fresh news is again noted for our midday direction. The weekly export sales were at 321,400 tons which is sad to say was in the upper half of trader expectations. The plains are turning colder with moisture looking to remain limited; this should limit downside.

The Australian harvest should continue to push on this week with overall harvest pressure starting to fade. Black Sea values have remained steady to weak with Russia working to push more bushels out. Stats Canada raised production which only solidifies the huge global supply-side fundamentals.

On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the $4.18 3/4 fresh contract low scored this morning, with the 20-day at $4.35 noted chart resistance.

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Ernst Undesser
From DTN/Telvent December 7, 2017