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Drought Outlook: Improvements for Northwest, Midwest; Expansion in Southeast

Ernst Undesser
Edited by Ernst Undesser, AgFax Web Editor, with Information from Brad Pugh, NOAA October 19, 2017

Drought Outlook: Improvements for Northwest, Midwest; Expansion in Southeast

The drought outlook from October 19, 2017 through January 31, 2018 is based primarily on initial conditions, 7-day precipitation forecasts, extended range (6-10/8-14 day) precipitation and temperature outlooks, the CPC November and November through January (NDJ) precipitation and temperature outlooks, and climatology.

The highest confidence for drought removal is across Washington and northern Idaho due to heavy precipitation forecast in the short-term and a wet time of year during the outlook period. Removal and improvement is also forecast for the northern Rockies. Although the seasonal outlook calls for increased chances of above normal precipitation across eastern Montana, a relatively dry time of year favors persistence on a broad scale. This persistence extends east to include the ongoing drought areas of the Dakotas.

Small areas of moderate drought exist across parts of the Ozarks, middle Mississippi Valley, Corn Belt, and New England. NDJ is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge and without a dry signal on the seasonal time scale, removal of these drought areas are anticipated by the end of January 2018.

Persistence is most likely for the ongoing drought areas across the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley, and east Texas, consistent with the seasonal precipitation outlook. Due to heavy and excessive rainfall associated with Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Nate, the coverage of development is limited for this outlook.

The potential for moderate to heavy rainfall during late October tempers the forecast confidence for development across the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Confidence is higher for development for parts of south Texas, the Big Bend region of Texas, and the southwestern U.S., while long-term drought is likely to persist across southern areas of Arizona and California.

An increasingly wet climatology during December and January favors improvement and removal of drought across the Hawaiian Islands by the end of January 2018. Alaska and Puerto Rico are expected to remain drought-free .

Confidence for the High Plains is moderate.

  • An increase in precipitation since late September resulted in drought ending across parts of the central Dakotas.
  • Prospects for additional, widespread drought amelioration for the Dakotas are expected to decrease, beginning in late October and continuing through January 2018. Only 5 to 10 percent of the annual precipitation occurs during Nov-Dec-Jan across the Dakotas.
  • Due to this dry climatology and the likelihood of little or no precipitation during the next few weeks, persistence is favored for the ongoing moderate to severe drought areas of the Dakotas.
United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge

Click Image to Enlarge

Confidence for the West is low for Montana.

  • Long-term drought continues across much of Montana with exceptional drought over northeast parts of the state. As of October 18, the precipitation deficit is 5 inches at Glasgow, Montana which is 53 percent of normal.
  • The seasonal outlook calls for enhanced odds for above normal precipitation throughout Montana which is consistent with increasing chances for La Niña.
  • Despite this wet signal, the eastern third of Montana only receives 5 to 15 percent of its annual precipitation during Nov-Dec-Jan. Due to this relatively dry time of year, persistence is the most likely outcome on a broad scale for the high Plains of eastern Montana.
  • Chances for improvement or removal of drought are more likely closer to the northern Rockies extending west to include northern Idaho, where Nov-Dec-Jan is a relatively wetter time of year compared to the northern Great Plains.

Confidence for the West is high for Arizona and California.

  • Impacts related to the multi-year drought continue for parts of southern California and Arizona.
  • Without a clear wet signal among precipitation tools at any time scale and increasing chances for La Niña development, persistence or development is forecast for southern California and Arizona.

Confidence for the West is high for the Pacific Northwest and northern Idaho.

  • Following a hot, dry summer that resulted in drought expansion across the Pacific Northwest and northern Idaho, heavy rain and high-elevation snow since mid-September resulted in drought removal across northern Oregon and southeast Washington. Another round of heavy precipitation (2 to 10 inches, locally more) during the next five days is likely to lead to additional removal.
  • The Pacific Northwest and northern Idaho receives 35 to 50 percent of its annual precipitation during Nov-Dec-Jan. Based on this wet climatology, drought removal is likely.

Confidence for the Midwest is high.

  • Heavy rainfall (2 to 4 inches, or more) resulted in 1 to 2 category improvements to drought across Iowa and Illinois. Small areas of moderate (D1) drought continue for parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and Corn Belt, to the south and east of the swath of recent heavy rainfall.
  • Although only modest amounts (an inch or less) of precipitation are forecast during the remainder of October, short-term drought is likely to end by the end of January 2018 as the next three months are a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.

Confidence for the South is moderate.

  • The seasonal outlook calls for an increased chance of below normal precipitation across the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas. However, similar to the Southeast, widespread drought development is not anticipated due to heavy rainfall and flooding, associated with Hurricane Harvey.
  • Persistence is forecast for the moderate drought areas in Mississippi along with northeast and south Texas.
  • Based on 60-day precipitation deficits, the most likely area for additional development across the lower Mississippi Valley is east-central Mississippi.
  • Forecast confidence is slightly higher for development across south Texas and the Big Bend region of Texas since little to no precipitation is expected during the remainder of October.
  • Prospects for drought removal increase across Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma, based on predicted rainfall (1 to 2 inches) during the next week along with a weaker signal for below normal precipitation among seasonal precipitation tools.

Confidence for the Southeast is low.

  • Hurricanes Irma and Nate resulted in above-normal rainfall across parts of the Southeast during the past 60 days. Outside areas that received this rainfall, abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) expanded across the Carolinas and Virginia.
  • Although the seasonal outlook favors below normal precipitation across the Southeast, widespread development is not anticipated due to: 1. the heavy rainfall footprint associated with this year’s hurricanes and 2. widespread rainfall (locally heavy) during the next week.
  • Persistence is forecast for the ongoing drought area in North Carolina and Virginia with additional development most likely across the piedmont areas of the Carolinas. However, expected rainfall during late October limits forecast confidence in this development.

Confidence for the Northeast is moderate.

  • Moderate drought (D1) expanded recently to include eastern Maine along with parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island based on 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits and low streamflows. Since June 1, Portland, Maine is 6.74 inches below normal.
  • Despite the increasing precipitation deficits, the late fall and winter is a favorable time for drought recovery with low evapotranspiration rates, dormant vegetation, and soil moisture recharge.
  • Also, an amplifying upper-level trough over eastern North America is expected to enhance odds for above normal precipitation during the day 6-10 period.
  • There is the potential for heavier precipitation amounts across the Northeast, depending on how the upper-level trough amplifies. Given the likelihood for moderate to heavy precipitation during the remainder of October coupled with climatology, drought removal is forecast for the Northeast.

Confidence for Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico is high.

  • From January through September 2017, Lihue and Hilo airports have received 78 and 64 percent of their normal precipitation, respectively. An increasingly wet time of year and potential influences from La Niña favor improvement or removal of Hawaii drought later in the outlook period.
  • There is currently no drought in Alaska or Puerto Rico.

Source: : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php

Ernst Undesser
Edited by Ernst Undesser, AgFax Web Editor, with Information from Brad Pugh, NOAA October 19, 2017