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DTN Livestock Midday: Limited Buying Interest Adds Pressure to Lean Hogs

Ernst Undesser
By Rick Kment DTN Analyst October 17, 2017

DTN Livestock Midday: Limited Buying Interest Adds Pressure to Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures have eroded through the morning with traders quickly backing away from strong early gains, now posting 80 cent losses in spot month contracts. Nearby gains are holding in cattle futures. This is creating some stability through the market Tuesday.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures remain mixed at midday as firm gains have steadily developed through the live cattle complex. This has limited trade volume through the morning. Early support in lean hog trade has pulled buyers back from the market as nearby futures are now holding moderate to firm losses.

Corn prices are steady to lower in light trade. December corn futures are steady. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones is 17 points higher while Nasdaq is down 3 point.

LIVE CATTLE:

Strong gains have developed in October live cattle futures with traders focusing on firm commercial interest stepping back into the nearby contracts. All nearby futures have broken away from the early mixed trade seen across the complex with prices able to draw additional momentum Tuesday on the expectation that additional fundamental support will continue to develop over the next couple of weeks.

Cash cattle markets are undeveloped early Tuesday with bids and asking prices generally hard to pin down at this point. It is expected that asking prices will start out $113 to $114 live basis and around $178 per cwt. It will likely be Thursday or Friday before active trade develops in most areas.

Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.75 higher (select) and up $0.30 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 68 total loads reported (30 loads of choice cuts, 13 loads of select cuts, 13 loads of trimmings, 12 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are trading in a directionless market range with very little activity seen across the complex. The overall lack of movement in the complex has created very little incentive for traders to move in either direction. Prices are hovering from 15 cents per cwt lower to 12 cents cwt higher as traders look for direction from both the live cattle market as well as outside markets Tuesday morning.

LEAN HOGS:

Moderate pressure has quickly developed across the lean hog futures trade with traders focusing on nearby contracts 30 to 80 cents per cwt lower. This is a significant shift from the strong morning rally seen in the first hour of trade. The focus across the market continues to draw buyers back into the complex, which may help to stabilize prices in deferred contracts.

Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price higher $0.54 at $58.91 per cwt with the range from $53.00 to $61.50 on 5,419 head reported sold.

Cash prices higher on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price added $1.36 at $61.02 per cwt with the range from $58.00 to $61.02 on 2,253 head reported sold.

The National Pork Plant Report reported 204 loads selling with prices falling $0.70 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10/13 is at $60.24 up $0.73 with a projected two-day index of $61.00, up 0.76.

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Ernst Undesser
By Rick Kment DTN Analyst October 17, 2017