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WASDE Oilseeds: Domestic Soybean Production Unchanged

Ernst Undesser
From USDA October 12, 2017

WASDE Oilseeds: Domestic Soybean Production Unchanged

U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 132.3 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month mainly on lower sunflowerseed, canola, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 4,431 million bushels, nearly unchanged from last month with higher harvested area offsetting lower yields.

Harvested area is projected at a record 89.5 million acres, up 0.8 million. The soybean yield is forecast at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels. With lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2017/18 are projected down 44 million bushels. With use projections unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 430 million bushels.

If realized, ending stocks relative to use would be the highest since 2006/07.

The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $290 to $330 per short ton and 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 577.0 million tons, down 1.6 million as reductions for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed are partly offset by increases for cottonseed and peanuts.

Global soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 347.9 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Ukraine. Higher production for China and Mexico is partly offsetting. Sunflowerseed production is also lower for Russia and Ukraine on lower yields. Rapeseed production is lowered for Australia where yields are impacted by below-normal rainfall.

More Grain Commentary


Global oilseed exports for 2017/18 are down 0.4 million tons to 173.9 million on lower soybean and sunflowerseed exports. Soybean exports are lowered for Ukraine while sunflowerseed exports are lowered for Ukraine and Russia. Lower rapeseed exports for Australia are offset by higher exports for Ukraine.

Global oilseed ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected down 1.6 million tons from last month to 107.9 million mainly reflecting back-year adjustments that reduced soybean carryin for Brazil and the United States.

Full report.

Ernst Undesser
From USDA October 12, 2017