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DTN Grain Close: More New Lows in Corn and Wheat

Ernst Undesser
From DTN/Telvent August 22, 2017

DTN Grain Close: More New Lows in Corn and Wheat

One last day of rain around the central and eastern Midwest was enough to take December corn down to $3.60, near last year’s August low. Chicago and K.C. wheat posted new contract lows while December Minneapolis wheat fell to its lowest close in two months, unable to find any buying interest while the spring wheat harvest nears its final third.

 

Midday: Mixed trade at midday, soybeans are showing the most strength.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday in quiet trade with trade seeing spillover from the soft wheat trade and a lack of any exciting revelations from on crop conditions. Ethanol margins dipped a bit with the energy pull-back bigger than the corn pull-back but remains positive, even as futures edge lower this a.m.

The weekly crop progress report had corn unchanged at 62% good to excellent, 12% poor to very poor, 76% in the dough, 1 percentage point behind average, 29% dented, 6 percentage points behind normal.

On the December chart support is the new low at $3.60 3/4 touched yesterday and tested this morning with the contract low at $3.58 1/4 below that. Resistance is at the 10-day moving average at $3.70.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade setting back from the initial overnight highs with the November contract trading just above $9.40 at times today. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points. Rain coverage was a bit better than expected in Iowa and Illinois overnight in many areas.

There are reports of soybeans with lower-than-normal pod counts, but that doesn’t always translate to lower yields. Weekly crop progress improved 1 percentage point to 60% good to excellent, 12% poor to very poor with 97% blooming, same as average and 87% setting pods, 2 percentage pointS above average.

On the November chart support is at the fresh low for the move at $9.21, then the one-year low printed in June at $9.07. The 10-day moving average is chart resistance at $9.39 which we have tested this morning.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 1 to 7 cents lower with trade seeing a resumption of selling pressure once we got to the day session once again. Russian harvest continues to make good progress which will keep pressure on for now. The dollar has rebounded overnight ahead of the on going Fed conference.

Spring wheat harvest is 58% complete, 7 percentage points above average, with conditions up 1 percentage point at 34% good to excellent, and 42% poor to very poor.

Trade is heavily oversold, which should translate into bigger short covering at some point ahead of winter wheat planting. On the December Kansas City contract support is the $4.29 fresh low with resistance at the 10-day at $4.55.

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Ernst Undesser
From DTN/Telvent August 22, 2017