Tuesday, June 24, 2014
dr_mark_welch

Welch on Wheat: Crop Condition Unchanged with 33% Harvested

AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source


Market Situation

Crop Progress. Crop conditions in winter wheat continue to stabilize with crop maturity (96% headed, 33% harvested). The U.S. winter wheat crop condition index (very poor=1, poor=2, fair=3, good=4, excellent=5) is 269 this week, unchanged from the last three weeks. Average for this time in the season is 326.

In Texas, the crop condition index score increased 1 point to 223 as 1% moved from the very poor category to the poor. The average Texas wheat crop condition index at harvest is 289.

The percent of wheat in Kansas and Oklahoma rated as very poor and poor this week is 62% (down from 63%) and 76% (unchanged).

The spring wheat crop continues its favorable condition rating this week, 71% good and excellent, down from 72% last week and 70% last year.

Weather. Recent rains have brought much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country back up near normal levels of precipitation for the months of May and June.

Much of this same area is expected to receive additional precipitation in the 7-day Total Precipitation Forecast.

Longer term, models from the Climate Prediction Center forecast an 80% chance of an El Nino event later this fall. The most recent weekly sea surface temperature departure in the El Nino/La Nina critical region (region 3.4, along the equator between the international dateline and the western coast of South America) is 0.5°C, right at the El Nino threshold of +0.5°C.

Commitment of Traders. Hedge funds continued to build positions on the short side of the grain market last week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed net longs by this class of investors down to 22,688 contracts, down from 79,720 the week before and over 371,000 net long contracts in early April. Index funds continue to hold steady at about 740,000 net long positions. The price index fell another 24 points last week, down to 710, the lowest since 705 on February 11 (when net longs of 29,229 were about where we are now).

Marketing Strategies

2014 Wheat Marketing Plan. I completed by 2014 wheat marketing at harvest last week (June 18th). I sold my remaining cash wheat and offset my hedged futures contracts. The only settlement piece I am waiting on is the wheat harvest price for insurance purposes. This price is calculated as the average closing price of the July Kansas City wheat futures contract for the month of June. At present, that average price is $7.17 per bushel.

Upcoming Reports/Events.

June 27 – Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report
June 30 – Crop Progress, Acreage, Grain Stocks
July 7 – Crop Progress
July 11 – WASDE

Tags: , , , , , ,


Leave a Reply

Name and Email Address are required fields. Your email will not be published or shared with third parties.

Sunbelt Ag News

    Biodiesel Production On Small Scale Part of Tennessee Field Day May 195-4

    DTN Cotton Open: Market Remains Bullish5-4

    Flint on Crops: Growers Prepare to Plant “Alternative Crops” Due to Weather5-4

    DTN Livestock Open: Tight Fed Cattle Supplies5-4

    DTN Grain Open: Week Starts Mostly Lower5-4

    Grain Sorghum: Sugarcane Aphid Treatments Triggered In Lower Rio Grande Valley5-4

    Fertilizer Prices Slip As Planting Lags – More Market, Production News – AgFax Weekend5-2

    Rice Farmers Finally Getting What They Immediately Need – AgFax5-1

    Glyphosate Resistant Palmer Pigweed Confirmed in Southwest Nebraska5-1

    Rice Crop: Rain, Hail Weigh Heavily on Getting Planting Done5-1

    Rice Market: Slow Week Though Export Sale Commitments Increased5-1

    Cleveland on Cotton: Gotta Love this Market5-1

    Rose on Cotton: Expect Improved Forward Contracting – Tread Carefully5-1

    Stink Bugs: Bottle ‘Em Up; Entomologist Need Reports, Specimens – DTN5-1

    USDA Wildlife Habitat Program – 30 Years, 1M Acres5-1

    DTN Livestock Close: Nearbys Losing Ground to Deferrends5-1

    USDA Announces Commodity Credit Corporation Lending Rates for May 20155-1

    Louisiana: Insect, Disease Management Critical as Ag Exports Increase5-1

    Southern Grains – “Odd” and “Weird” Season Veers Toward Normal – AgFax5-1

    AFB Grain-Soybean Close: Corn, Soybeans Hit by Positive Weather5-1

    AFB Cotton Close: Prices Rebound Off Lows5-1

    AFB Rice Close: Narrow Trade Moves Lower5-1

    DTN Cotton Close: May Starts with Selling, Liquidation5-1

    DTN Grain Close: Big Weather Knockdown5-1

    Arkansas Rice Specialty License Plates Now Available5-1

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Limited Expansion, Limited Improvement5-1

    USDA: Peanut Price Highlights5-1

    Corn: Gene-Silencing Technique Attempts Aflatoxin-Resistance – DTN5-1

    Weekly Cotton Market Review – USDA5-1

    Bt Protein: New Boll Weevil Weapon Approved in South America – DTN5-1

    Texas: Sugarcane Aphids Turn-Row Meeting, DaCosta, May 45-1

    Sweet Potatoes: Discovery Could Turn GMO Debate on Its Head – DTN5-1

    DTN Livestock Midday: Traders Take Protection Ahead of Weekend5-1

    DTN Grain Midday: U.S. Dollar Rebounds5-1

    Cotton: Nearly 200 Farmers Will Put XtendFlex Through Its Paces In 20155-1

    USDA Farmers Market Kicks Off Its 20th Season5-1

    FFA: Endowment to Kick Start Plan for More Ag Teachers5-1

    Corn: USDA Yield Forecasts – What Do the Numbers Mean?4-30

    Grain TV: Unexpected Cancellations and Underestimates4-30

    Weed Management: Pre-Emergent Control Necessary for Pigweed – Video4-30

    Moving Grains: Corn Inspections Highest in Over a Year4-30

    Peanut Stocks: Utilization Up 6% from ’144-30

    U.S. Drought Monitor Quick Look Video – AgFax4-30

    Drought Monitor: Heavy Rains for Southern Plains, Southeast4-30

    White House Defends WOTUS as Debate Continues – DTN4-30

    Farmland Rents 2015: Pain, Fear, Reality – AgFax Midwest Grain4-29

    Ask the Taxman: Retirement Strategies, Living Trusts, Accounting for Leases – DTN4-29

    Bird Flu: Poultry Loss Claims Keep Growing, USDA Eyes Backup Funds – DTN4-29

    Uncertain Future for RFS Compliance Rules – Farmdoc4-29

    Propane Stocks Remain at Comfortable Levels4-29

    Gasoline Prices Jump Higher4-29

    Diesel Prices on the Rise4-29

    Texas: Wheat Field Day, Bushland, May 214-29

    Farm Safety: Grain Bin Entrapments Up Nationwide in 20144-29

    Texas: Ranchers’ Workshop, Mertzon, May 154-29

    Brazil Soybeans: Land Prices Rise in North, Hopes of Logistic Cuts – DTN4-29

    Precision Ag Software, Services – $1.77 Bln. Market Potential By 20204-29

    Pesticide Labels – They Put ‘Em On Those Jugs For A Reason4-29

    Georgia: Peanut Commission Approved by 92 Percent of Peanut Farmers4-28

    USDA: Weekly National Peanut Prices4-28

    Superweed – Scientists Try To Define What That Means4-28

    Indiana, Nebraska: Wet Weather Keeping Farmers From Field Work – DTN4-28

    Dow Inks Soybean Trait Research Deal With 2 Biotech Companies4-28

    Welch on Grain: Corn Planting Progress Just Below Average4-28

    Shurley on Cotton: Breaking The 67-Cent Barrier – When?4-28

    Sunbelt Ag Events

     

    About Us

    AgFax.Com covers agricultural trends and production topics, with an emphasis on news about cotton, rice, peanuts, corn, soybeans, wheat and tree crops, including almonds, pecans, walnuts and pistachios.

      

    This site also serves as the on-line presence of electronic crop and pest reports published by AgFax Media LLC (formerly Looking South Communications).

        

    Click here to subscribe to our free reports.

      

    We provide early warnings and confirmations about pests, diseases and other factors that influence yield. Our goal is to quickly provide farmers and crop advisors with information needed to make better and more profitable decisions.

         

    Our free weekly crop and pest advisories include:

    • AgFax Midsouth Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri.

    • AgFax Southeast Cotton, covering cotton production and news in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southwest Cotton (new for 2013!), covering cotton production and news in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.

    • AgFax West (formerly MiteFax: SJV Cotton), covering California cotton, alfalfa, tomatoes and other non-permanent crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgFax Rice covering rice production and news in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

    • AgFax Peanuts, covering peanut production in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

    • AgFax Southern Grain: covering soybeans, corn, milo and small grains in Southern states.

    • AgFax Almonds, covering almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other tree crops in California's Central Valley.

    • AgCom 101, providing guidance to ag professionals involved in social media.

    Our newsletters are sponsored by the following companies: FMC Corporation Chemtura Dow AgroSciences.

          

    Mission statement:

    Make it as easy as possible for our community of readers to find and/or receive needed information.

              

    Contact Information:

    AgFax Media. LLC

    142 Westlake Drive Brandon, MS 39047

    601-992-9488 Office

    Owen Taylor Debra L. Ferguson Laurie Courtney

          

    Circulation Questions?

    Contact Laurie Courtney +