The Latest

Events

  1. Kansas: K-State Program to Help Farmers Deal with Historic Ag Downturn

    December 7, 2016 @ 8:00 am - February 15, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  2. Louisiana: LSU Rice Clinics Scheduled Jan. 5 to Feb. 8 in 6 Locations

    December 20, 2016 @ 8:00 am - February 9, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
  3. South Carolina: 4 Upcoming Forest Management Workshops for Woodland Owners

    January 12 @ 8:00 am - February 10 @ 5:00 pm
  4. Minnesota: Weed Resistance Workshops for Jan., Feb.

    January 13 @ 8:00 am - February 24 @ 5:00 pm
  5. Louisiana: LSU Offers 3 Irrigation Workshops in Jan., Feb.

    January 17 @ 8:00 am - February 14 @ 5:00 pm
  6. Illinois: 4 Regional Crop Management Conferences in Jan., Feb.

    January 18 @ 8:00 am - February 15 @ 5:00 pm
  7. Georgia Ag Forecast Series Scheduled Jan. 18-27

    January 18 @ 8:00 am - January 27 @ 5:00 pm
  8. Texas: Pecan Short Course, College Station, Jan 23-26

    January 23 @ 8:00 am - January 26 @ 5:00 pm
  9. Missouri: 9 ‘Grow Your Farm’ Sessions from Jan. – March

    January 23 @ 8:00 am - March 11 @ 5:00 pm
  10. Texas: Red River Crops Conference, Childress Jan. 24-25

    January 24 @ 8:00 am - January 25 @ 5:00 pm
  11. South Carolina: Cotton, Peanut Grower Meetings, Sentee, Jan. 24, 26

    January 24 @ 8:00 am - January 26 @ 5:00 pm
  12. Missouri: 4 Farm Retirement, Succession, Estate Planning Workshops in Jan., Feb.

    January 24 @ 8:00 am - February 14 @ 5:00 pm
  13. Arkansas Soil & Water Education Conference, Jonesboro, Jan. 25

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  14. Georgia: Cotton Production Workshop, Tifton, Jan. 25

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  15. Texas: Feed Grains Marketing Workshop, Amarillo, Jan. 25-26

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - January 26 @ 5:00 pm
  16. Virginia Eastern Shore Ag Conference and Trade Show, Melfa, Jan. 25-27

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - January 27 @ 5:00 pm
  17. Louisiana: Conservation Program Workshop, West Monroe, Jan. 25

    January 25 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  18. Middle Tennessee Grain Conference, Manchester, Jan. 26

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  19. Texas: Pesticide Applicator Course, Harleton, Jan. 26

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  20. Texas: Feral Hog Program, Falfurrias, Jan. 26

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  21. Nebraska Livestock: 8 Nutrient Management Workshops in Jan. and Feb.

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - February 7 @ 5:00 pm
  22. Rice Industry: Upcoming Meetings in MS, AR, LA, in Jan., Feb.

    January 26 @ 8:00 am - February 8 @ 5:00 pm
  23. Texas: Llano Estacado Cotton Conference, Muleshoe, Jan. 30

    January 30 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  24. Texas: Feral Hog Management Workshop, La Vernia, Jan. 30

    January 30 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  25. Alabama: Upcoming Crop Production Meetings, Jan. 30, Feb. 7

    January 30 @ 8:00 am - February 7 @ 5:00 pm
  26. Indiana: Ag Business Management Workshop, West Lafayette, Jan. 31 – Feb. 2

    January 31 @ 8:00 am - February 2 @ 5:00 pm
  27. Texas: ‘Last Chance’ CEU Training, San Angelo, Jan. 31

    January 31 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  28. California: Farm Labor Management Workshops Scheduled in February

    February 1 @ 8:00 am - February 2 @ 5:00 pm
  29. Tennessee: Grain & Soybean Producers Conference, Dyersburg, Feb. 2

    February 2 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
  30. Texas: Grain Elevator Workshop, Amarillo, Feb. 2

    February 2 @ 8:00 am - 5:00 pm

Welch on Wheat: Crop Condition Unchanged with 33% Harvested

Ernst Undesser
By Mark Welch, Texas AgriLife Extension June 24, 2014

Market Situation

Crop Progress. Crop conditions in winter wheat continue to stabilize with crop maturity (96% headed, 33% harvested). The U.S. winter wheat crop condition index (very poor=1, poor=2, fair=3, good=4, excellent=5) is 269 this week, unchanged from the last three weeks. Average for this time in the season is 326.

In Texas, the crop condition index score increased 1 point to 223 as 1% moved from the very poor category to the poor. The average Texas wheat crop condition index at harvest is 289.

The percent of wheat in Kansas and Oklahoma rated as very poor and poor this week is 62% (down from 63%) and 76% (unchanged).

The spring wheat crop continues its favorable condition rating this week, 71% good and excellent, down from 72% last week and 70% last year.

 

Weather. Recent rains have brought much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country back up near normal levels of precipitation for the months of May and June.

Much of this same area is expected to receive additional precipitation in the 7-day Total Precipitation Forecast.

Longer term, models from the Climate Prediction Center forecast an 80% chance of an El Nino event later this fall. The most recent weekly sea surface temperature departure in the El Nino/La Nina critical region (region 3.4, along the equator between the international dateline and the western coast of South America) is 0.5°C, right at the El Nino threshold of +0.5°C.

Commitment of Traders. Hedge funds continued to build positions on the short side of the grain market last week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed net longs by this class of investors down to 22,688 contracts, down from 79,720 the week before and over 371,000 net long contracts in early April. Index funds continue to hold steady at about 740,000 net long positions. The price index fell another 24 points last week, down to 710, the lowest since 705 on February 11 (when net longs of 29,229 were about where we are now).

Marketing Strategies

2014 Wheat Marketing Plan. I completed by 2014 wheat marketing at harvest last week (June 18th). I sold my remaining cash wheat and offset my hedged futures contracts. The only settlement piece I am waiting on is the wheat harvest price for insurance purposes. This price is calculated as the average closing price of the July Kansas City wheat futures contract for the month of June. At present, that average price is $7.17 per bushel.

Upcoming Reports/Events.

June 27 – Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report
June 30 – Crop Progress, Acreage, Grain Stocks
July 7 – Crop Progress
July 11 – WASDE

Ernst Undesser
By Mark Welch, Texas AgriLife Extension June 24, 2014