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DTN Grain Midday: Corn, Soybeans Move Higher

Mike Christensen
By David Fiala, DTN Contributing Analyst June 19, 2014

Corn and soybeans are higher at midday and wheat is mixed.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 30. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 34 lower. Energies are higher with crude $0.40 higher. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $25.

 

CORN

Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with some follow-through buying appearing this morning. Outside markets are supportive with the dollar weaker and gold higher. The July contract continues to lead with slowing farmer movement and a stable to firmer basis. Remember, July options go off the board on Friday. The greatest open interest is at the $4.50 strike, so the expiration argument would say option writers favor a $4.50 area settlement on Friday. Continued rains are adding flood concerns to many areas of the Upper Midwest, which should help add support while the waters are up.

Ethanol producer margins have slipped from higher production, but blender margins are very strong, which will stimulate demand. December contract support is at the $4.35 contract low, which is 4 cents below the close. Resistance is at $4.45 1/2 10-day moving average, which we are above at midday. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 109,000 metric tons, and 78,900 metric tons of new crop.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher at midday following corn trade. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. The July/November inverse is stable this morning at $1.97, $1 below the beginning of the month high. July futures have support at the 100-day moving average at $13.98 after briefly dropping below that area. On the November chart, trade is just above the 10-day, at $12.18, with key resistance at the $12.29 20-day. The $12 area is acting as support after that area held yesterday. November beans have stayed in this rough $12-$12.30 range all of June so far. This type of sideways consolidation tends to generate bigger follow-through on a break-out of the range once it occurs. The weekly export sales were OK at 97,900 metric tons of old crop, and 285,800 of new crop. Product sales were good at 54,700 metric tons old crop meal, 127,800 of new crop meal, and 10,300 of bean oil.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is mixed at midday after trade was unable to sustain the initial overnight gains. The softer dollar should help trade find additional buying interest and increase export competitiveness if sustained. World wheat weather remains good, which is limiting futures upside and U.S. export sales. The July KC is back above the 20-day moving average, at $7.25, and the 10-day moving average at $7.18, with further support at the 200-day moving average of $7.09. If we could close above these moving averages today, that would be a buy signal on the chart. The weekly export sales were on the lower end of expectations with sales of 372,600 metric tons.

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Mike Christensen
By David Fiala, DTN Contributing Analyst June 19, 2014