Agfax Buzz:
    June 19, 2014

    Doane Cotton Close: Old Crop Rally Gets Hammered

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    The Doane Cotton Commentary - Leading in Agricultural Analysis Over 70 Years - Copyright

    The big sudden rebound in old crop cotton had gone six straight trading sessions until yesterday’s break and it got hammered today. Until yesterday, new crop futures had been reluctant to follow the rally in old crop and the July-Dec spread had approached 15 cents until finally starting to close a bit yesterday and significantly today.

    Unwinding of long July/short December spreads is surely a factor as well. If spread-unwinding is the best thing bulls can cling to for new crop, it’s gonna prove temporary at best and I suspect another selling opportunity.

     

    If December futures can hit 79 again, cash marketers should take sales to 45% and Futures and options users hedge another 15%, to 65% priced. I totally concur with cotton guru Dr Carl Anderson who told followers yesterday that we could be looking at a 16.5 million bale crop vs USDA’s June WASDE call for 15.0 million bales in a year.

    The only bright spot in that event is Anderson’s observation that U.S. export potential probably exceeds USDA’s current forecast because the gap between foreign production and foreign use is 7.7 million bales, the biggest deficit in three years.

    Tags:

    Copyright , Doane Advisory Services

    >

    Agfax Cotton News

    Missouri: Crop Budgets For Southeast Counties12-20

    Rose on Cotton: Consider Selling Remaining Spot Cotton12-19

    Doane Cotton Close: Another Choppy Week Ends Slightly Ahead12-19

    Arkansas: State Plant Board Approves Enlist Duo, Dicamba Weed Control Systems12-19

    Mississippi Crop Values to Top $7B for 3rd Straight Year12-19

    AFB Cotton Close: Mixed as Futures Continue to Consolidate12-19

    Cleveland on Cotton: India Stirs the Bears; China Releases Reliable Stock Estimates12-19

    Texas Ag Benefits from Normalized U.S.-Cuba Relations, Says Expert12-19

    DTN Cotton Close: Narrowly Mixed on Light Volume12-19

    Weekly Cotton Market Review12-19

    DTN Cotton Open: Ticks Quietly Just Below Unchanged12-19

    Georgia Cotton: NexGen Variety Trial Results Posted12-19

    Keith Good: New Cuba Policy Could Open Huge Market for U.S. Wheat12-19

    Nitrogen Fertilizer: Oversupply, Geopolitical Risk Overshadow Strong Global Demand – DTN12-18

    AFB Cotton Close: Gains Continue but Unable to Break Through Resistance12-18

    Doane Cotton Close: Choppy Sideways Action Continues12-18

    Georgia: 2015 Ag Forecast Meetings in Mid-January12-18

    DTN Cotton Close: Modest Gains in Choppy Trade12-18

    U.S. Drought Outlook: Improvement Expected Across California12-18

    Ag Trade Should Benefit from Thaw in U.S.-Cuba Relations12-18

    DTN Cotton Open: Futures Start Slightly Lower12-18

    U.S. Energy: Heating Oil Expenditures Expected to Drop This Winter12-18

    Gasoline Prices: Decline in All Regions12-18

    Propane Stocks: Decrease by 0.8M Barrels12-18

    Diesel Prices: Average Drops 12 Cents12-18

    Keith Good: Viptera Corn Ban Lifted by China; Wheat Prices Soaring12-18

    AFB Cotton Close: Market Higher in Middle of Consolidation Range12-17

    Virginia Govt. Joins USDA, EPA in Fighting Nutrient Runoff – DTN12-17

    Doane Cotton Close: Choppy Sideways Trade Continues12-17

    Tennessee: TAPA Winter Agronomic Workshop and Cotton Focus, Jackson, Feb. 11-1212-17

    DTN Cotton Close: Jumps to Session High on Fed Statement12-17

    Tennessee: 2015 Cotton Variety Guide Available Online12-17

    DTN Cotton Open: Futures Show Little Change12-17

    Senate Passes Tax Extenders Bill with Key Provisions for Ag — DTN12-17

    Keith Good: EPA Moving Ahead with Plans to Finalize Clean Water Rule12-17

    Doane Cotton Close: Prices Pressured Lower12-16

    DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Global Phosphorous Demand to Increase12-16

    DTN Cotton Close: Wipes Out Most of 3-Day Gain12-16

    California: New Pesticide Resistance Online Course Offered12-16

    DTN Cotton Open: Slips as Oil Prices Sink12-16