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DTN Grain Midday: Soybean Trade Takes Plunge

Mike Christensen
By David Fiala, DTN Contributing Analyst June 12, 2014

Soybeans are sharply lower at midday while corn and wheat tread water.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 40. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 14 lower. Energies are sharply higher with crude $1.50 higher. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $12.

        
         

CORN

Corn trade is flat to 3 cents lower at midday. Ethanol prices have been pressured but the margins are still good, and the strength in crude oil should support blender margins. Basis has firmed slightly this week. Export sales were OK at 409,700 metric tons of old crop and 105,500 metric tons of new crop. The weather forecast remains mostly good in the near term which will keep some pressure on the market, but the good underlying demand should help to keep a level of support under the market at $4.35. Resistance is at $4.50 on the December contract on a rally.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is sharply lower at midday with July 17 to 22 cents lower and November 8 to 12 cents lower. Meal is $6 to $8 lower and oil is 20 to 30 cents higher. The July/November inverse is down to $2.15, which is a new low for the move. Growing weather is forecasted to remain good for soybeans in coming days, and speculation about increased soybeans acres should continue, which should weigh on November soybean trade. Export sales were OK at 86,700 metric tons of old crop, and 403,300 of new crop. Product sales were 59,500 metric tons old crop meal, 10,800 of new crop meal, and 71,800 metric tons of bean oil. On the November chart, resistance was found at the 20-day moving average, currently at $12.32, and we are back below the $12.25 10-day. Those are our resistance levels and support should be found at $12 tomorrow.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower across the three contracts with light liquidation continuing. Harvest delays look to persist across the Southern Plains potentially adding support in the near term. The weaker dollar could add support as well if sustained. July Kansas City dropped below the 200-day yesterday. If we cannot get back above this level, at $7.09, by Friday long liquidation could get bigger into the weekend.

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Mike Christensen
By David Fiala, DTN Contributing Analyst June 12, 2014