Agfax Buzz:
    June 12, 2014

    DTN Cotton Close: Rallies to Finish Higher

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent

    U.S. export commitments reached 103% of the latest USDA forecast for 2013-14 and shipments totaled 90%. New-crop bookings stand at 24% of the 2014-15 projection.

    Cotton futures finished on the plus side Thursday, rallying amid busy switch activity from losses posted on the heels of weekly export sales-shipments data.

    July edged up 11 points to close at 85.62 cents, trading within a 179-point range from down 70 points at 84.81 to up 109 points at 86.60 cents. It rallied after falling below the previous-day low, stalled shy of the Wednesday high and settled just below midrange.

    December gained 64 points to close at 77.83 cents, just off the high of its 110-point range from down 39 points at 76.80 to up 71 points at 77.90 cents. It finished above highs of the previous three sessions.

    The inverted July-December switch lost ground for the second straight day, narrowing 53 points to close at 779 points.

    Volume remained brisk, rising to an estimated 48,100 lots from 46,028 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 30,998 lots or 67%, EFP 416 lots and EFS 300 lots. Options volume totaled 3,770 calls and 7,443 puts.

    Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for delivery this season of 42,500 running bales during the week ended June 5, down from 134,600 bales the previous week, brought 2013-14 commitments to 10.513 million RB.

    Commitments were 103% of the latest upwardly revised USDA estimate, compared with 105% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season. Bookings trailed year-ago commitments by 2.78 million bales or about 21%.

    All-cotton shipments of 189,700 bales, up from 179,600 bales the week before, boosted the total for the season to 9.215 million. Exports have reached about 90% of the new estimate, about the same as the percentage of final shipments a year ago.

    About 88% of the commitments have been shipped, against around 86% a year ago. To achieve the new estimate, shipments need to average roughly 138,700 running bales a week.

    Sales of 74,700 bales for shipment next season raised 2014-15 commitments to 2.242 million, about 320,000 bales more than forward bookings a year ago.

    New-crop commitments reached about 24% of the 2014-15 export projection. A year ago, forward bookings were about 19% of the current 2013-14 estimate.

    Futures open interest edged up 129 lots Wednesday to 182,898, with July’s down 7,118 lots to 59,465 and December’s up 6,258 lots to 105,417. Certificated stocks grew 5,073 bales to 417,920. There were 5,995 newly certified bales, 922 bales decertified and 18,070 bales awaiting review.

    World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 70 points Thursday morning to 90.45 cents. The premium to Wednesday’s July futures settlement widened nine points to 4.94 cents.

    Forward A Index values for 2014-15 dropped 20 points to 84.35 cents, narrowing the discount to the 2013-14 index by 50 points to 6.10 cents and the premium to Wednesday’s December futures close by 14 points to 6.10 cents.

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