Agfax Buzz:
    June 12, 2014

    Doane Cotton Close: Disappointing Exports Support USDA Forecast

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    The Doane Cotton Commentary - Leading in Agricultural Analysis Over 70 Years - Copyright

    The bearish reaction to yesterday’s June WASDE report was tied exclusively to USDA’s failure to raise projected exports. The hike in production was expected and tied to raising the estimate of planted acreage that will get harvested now that there’s been substantial rain relief in Texas cotton country and an apparent shift in the drought pattern that promises further relief through the early growth stages for cotton. The forecast stocks-to-use ratio for cotton at 4.3 million bales is now the highest in 6 years.



    In revisions to the global balance sheet for cotton, beginning stocks were raised due to higher imports by China and higher production for India for the 2013/14 season. On top of that the production estimate was raised, but consumption the same amount. So it was the bump in beginning stocks that raised projected ending stocks.

    Today’s export sales report for the week was disappointing and supportive of USDA’s decision not to raise its export forecast. In fact, sales YTD are running below the 5-year average as a percentage of the current export forecast so it would have defied evidence and logic for USDA to raise exports after cutting its estimate of Chinese cotton imports (the biggest U.S. customer) to 8.0 million bales from 8.5 million last month.

    Tags: , , , , ,

    Copyright , Doane Advisory Services

    >

    Agfax Cotton News

    Doane Cotton Close: ICAC Releases Supply and Demand Forecasts7-22

    AFB Cotton Close: Moves Higher on Continued Consolidation7-22

    DTN Cotton Close: Settles with Modest Gains7-22

    USDA: Don’t Forget Farm Bill Conservation Compliance Changes7-22

    AgFax Cotton Review: Worst Price Slump in 55 Years; Weather Delays Development7-22

    Texas Crop Weather: Hay Situation Good in East, Southeast, Iffy Elsewhere7-22

    Georgia: Crops in Mostly Good Condition with Some Heat Stress – USDA7-22

    South Carolina: Rains Benefit Crops but Some Areas Still Stressed – USDA7-22

    Alabama: Crops Hold Steady with Welcome Showers – USDA7-22

    DTN Cotton Open: Trades Above Highs of Prior 3 Days7-22

    North Carolina Cotton: Stink Bug Management7-22

    Tennessee: Milan No-Till Field Day Comes July 247-22

    Keith Good: Soybeans, Corn Garner High Condition Ratings, Lower Prices7-22

    California: Cotton Looks Good Where Growers Have Water – USDA7-21

    AFB Cotton Close: Market Consolidates Above Support7-21

    Missouri: Crops in Good Condition in Abnormally Cool Weather – USDA7-21

    Mississippi: Rains Continue to Delay Field Work – USDA7-21

    Arkansas: Soybean Planting, Replanting Wrapping Up – USDA7-21

    Texas: Open Cotton Bolls in the Coastal Bend; Peanuts Pegging in the South – USDA7-21

    Doane Cotton Close: Little Supporting News7-21

    New Mexico: Fair Amount of Rain Improves Cotton – USDA7-21

    North Carolina: Southern Corn Rust Spreading, Some Areas Need Water – USDA7-21

    DTN Cotton Close: Settles Narrowly Mixed7-21

    Tennessee: Rain Has Been A Blessing And A Curse – USDA7-21

    Arizona: Cotton Squaring Almost Complete, Great Condition – USDA7-21

    It’s Been 18 Years – What’s Happened in Herbicide Tolerant and Insect Resistant Crops?7-21

    DTN Cotton Open: Posts Slight Gain at Midrange7-21

    Tennessee: Proper Nozzle Selection for Pesticide Applications7-21

    Flint on Crops: Bacterial Blight Makes a Comeback in Cotton7-21

    Keith Good: California Headed Deeper into Drought, Climatologist Says7-21

    Mississippi: Crops Report From Consultant Tucker Miller7-20

    California Cotton: Crop Moving Fast. Strong Yield Potential – AgFax7-20

    Georgia: Rain Makes All The Difference – Grady County7-19

    Florida Cotton: Fertilizing Late Planted Crop7-18

    Rose on Cotton: Future Holds Possibility of New Crop Sales Increase7-18

    Doane Cotton News: No Significant New News7-18

    Mississippi Cotton: Bacterial Blight Is Spreading7-18

    Mississippi Cotton: Yellow Spots Likely Mean Nutrient Deficiencies7-18

    Arkansas: Lighter-Than-Expected Rains a Relief7-18