Agfax Buzz:
    June 12, 2014

    Doane Cotton Close: Disappointing Exports Support USDA Forecast

    AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source

    The Doane Cotton Commentary - Leading in Agricultural Analysis Over 70 Years - Copyright

    The bearish reaction to yesterday’s June WASDE report was tied exclusively to USDA’s failure to raise projected exports. The hike in production was expected and tied to raising the estimate of planted acreage that will get harvested now that there’s been substantial rain relief in Texas cotton country and an apparent shift in the drought pattern that promises further relief through the early growth stages for cotton. The forecast stocks-to-use ratio for cotton at 4.3 million bales is now the highest in 6 years.

     

    In revisions to the global balance sheet for cotton, beginning stocks were raised due to higher imports by China and higher production for India for the 2013/14 season. On top of that the production estimate was raised, but consumption the same amount. So it was the bump in beginning stocks that raised projected ending stocks.

    Today’s export sales report for the week was disappointing and supportive of USDA’s decision not to raise its export forecast. In fact, sales YTD are running below the 5-year average as a percentage of the current export forecast so it would have defied evidence and logic for USDA to raise exports after cutting its estimate of Chinese cotton imports (the biggest U.S. customer) to 8.0 million bales from 8.5 million last month.

    Tags: , , , , ,

    Copyright , Doane Advisory Services

    >

    Agfax Cotton News

    DTN Cotton Open: Futures Begin Slightly Higher11-28

    Kentucky: Precision Planting, Drones Top List of Ag Issues11-28

    Keith Good: Corn, Soybean Prices Up Slightly in November — USDA11-28

    AFB Cotton Close: Prices Surge Higher11-26

    Residential Heating Oil Prices Lower11-26

    Propane Stocks Fall 2M Barrels11-26

    Gasoline Prices Drop 7 Cents11-26

    Diesel Prices Fall 3 Cents11-26

    Texas: Hopkins County Designated Natural Disaster Area11-26

    Alabama: 4 Counties Designated as Primary Disaster Areas11-26

    Texas Cotton: AgriLife’s On-Farm Variety Trials Available11-26

    DTN Cotton Open: Posts Slight Gains in Quiet Trade11-26

    Farm Income Down 21%; Expenses Up 5.7% – USDA Forecast11-26

    Georgia Cotton: Crop Unfazed by Early November Frost11-26

    Keith Good: Net Farm Income to Drop 21.1% from 2013, ERS Forecasts11-26

    Doane Cotton Close: Outside Strength Helps Prices Rebound11-25

    AgFax Cotton Review: New Stink Bug App; India Exports Drop11-25

    DTN Cotton Close: Higher on Light Volume11-25

    Tax Breaks: Waiting for 2014 Equipment Deduction, Biofuel – DTN11-25

    Georgia: 10 Farm Bill Meetings Scheduled for Mid Dec.11-25

    Texas Crop, Weather: Water Supply, Crop Prices Remain a Concern11-25

    Georgia Cotton: Thankfully, Harvest Almost Finished11-25

    DTN Cotton Open: Futures Edge Slightly Higher11-25

    Shurley on Cotton: New Round of Weakness Sets In11-25

    Keith Good: Farmers Care About a Labor Force, Not Politics — AFBF11-25

    Alabama: Row Crop Harvest Nearly Done — USDA11-24

    AFB Cotton Close: Trading at 5-Year Lows11-24

    Doane Cotton Close: Another Down Day11-24

    DTN Cotton Close: Finishes Just Above Contract Low11-24